Which Mag 7 Stock Has the Biggest Single-Day Move in 2026?
PM $39.87
1
7
Which Mag 7 Stock Has the Biggest Single-Day Move in 2026?
PM $39.87
1
7
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Apple (AAPL) at 37.5%.
Polymarket
- Apple (AAPL)37.5%
- Microsoft (MSFT)37.5%
- Alphabet (GOOGL)37.5%
- Amazon (AMZN)37.5%
- NVIDIA (NVDA)37.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $39.87
Reported volume · provider units
7
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the listed company whose stock records the largest single-day percentage move during calendar year 2026. Where a company has multiple publicly traded share classes, only the share class specified by the ticker in the listed group item title will be considered. For each stock, the single-day percentage move for a given trading day is calculated as the absolute value of (Close Price - Prior Close Price) ÷ Prior Close Price. The Prior Close Price for a given trading day is the Close Price for the most recent prior trading day on which the primary exchange held a regular trading session; for the first eligible day of 2026, the Prior Close Price is the Close Price for the final trading day of 2025. Overnight price changes between sessions are therefore included in each day’s move. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, and percentage moves will be calculated to the full precision, without rounding, after applying any corporate action adjustment described below. An eligible day is any day in calendar year 2026 on which the primary exchange for the listed security holds a regular trading session, including scheduled shortened sessions. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. The "Close Price" refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange on which the listed security trades. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action that changes a stock’s price basis with an ex-date falling between the two sessions being compared, the Prior Close Price will be adjusted using the split ratio and ex-date published in the corporate_actions field of Pyth’s symbol metadata (https://pyth.dourolabs.app/v1/symbols) so that both prices in that day’s calculation are expressed on the same post-action price basis. Pyth does not adjust historical candle data; candle values will be used as published, with the adjustment applied into the calculation. No adjustment will be made for dividends. If a price basis adjustment takes effect during a regular trading session rather than between sessions, that day will not count as an eligible day for the affected stock. If a corporate action changes a stock’s price basis but no corresponding entry is published in the corporate_actions field of Pyth’s symbol metadata, the affected day will not count as an eligible day for that stock. If a valid Pyth "Close" value for the relevant 1-minute candle is unavailable for a given stock on a given day, the last valid Pyth price achieved during that day's regular trading session will be used instead. If no valid Pyth price exists for that stock on that day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange will be used for that day. If a stock is halted for an entire session, suspended, delisted, or acquired during 2026, only days on which it has both a valid Close Price and a valid Prior Close Price count toward its largest move. If two or more stocks are exactly tied for the largest single-day percentage move this market will resolve according to the company whose ticker symbol comes first in alphabetical order. This market will resolve following the close of trading on the final trading day of calendar year 2026. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles. Corporate action adjustment factors and ex-dates are published in Pyth’s symbol metadata at https://pyth.dourolabs.app/v1/symbols. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AAPL%2FUSD?t=1773432000). The relevant Pyth feeds are: - Apple (AAPL): https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AAPL%2FUSD - Microsoft (MSFT): https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD - Alphabet (GOOGL): https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.GOOGL%2FUSD - Amazon (AMZN): https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AMZN%2FUSD - NVIDIA (NVDA): https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD - Meta (META): https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.META%2FUSD - Tesla (TSLA): https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The seven contracts in this snapshot all ask which Magnificent 7 stock will have the largest single-day percentage move during calendar year 2026. Each one names a single company, such as "Will Alphabet (GOOGL) have the biggest single-day move of the Mag 7 in 2026?" [1]. The rules define a day's move as the absolute value of (Close Price - Prior Close Price) ÷ Prior Close Price, so a large drop counts the same as a large rise [1].
The resolution source is Pyth's "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles, using regular trading hours on the primary exchange [1]. The rules also cover stock splits, halted or delisted stocks, and ties. A tie resolves to the company whose ticker comes first alphabetically [1]. The rules state that the market "will resolve following the close of trading on the final trading day of calendar year 2026," while the listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. These are different descriptions of the same closing point, and the listed time is not an announced event.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-17T06:00:06Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-17T08:43:33Z [1]. Both times describe the saved record, not a live feed.
Each contract shows a Yes price of 0.375 and a No price of 0.625 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Because all seven contracts show identical prices, this snapshot does not distinguish between companies. The record does not explain why the prices are equal, and it contains no volume or trader information that would clarify the market.
The sample includes all seven saved markets from one provider event, and the record marks it as not partial [1]. The same source notes that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. The seven contracts cover the named Mag 7 companies only, so they should not be compared with contracts from other events or platforms.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot does not show the stocks' actual 2026 moves, so it cannot indicate which company is leading or whether any contract is mispriced. The rules include several exceptions, including corporate action adjustments and days that do not count as eligible, which could affect the final result [1]. The available evidence does not describe any stock's trading to date. Readers should check the contract rules and the resolution source directly before drawing conclusions.
References
- Polymarket: Which Mag 7 Stock Has the Biggest Single-Day Move in 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event asking which of the Magnificent Seven stocks will record the largest single-day percentage move in calendar year 2026 [1]. The event is split into seven separate yes-or-no contracts, one for each company: Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), NVIDIA (NVDA), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA) [1]. Each contract asks whether that one company will be the stock with the biggest single-day move of the group during 2026 [1]. The measure used is the absolute percentage change from one trading day's close to the prior trading day's close. The absolute value means that a large decline counts as much as a large gain [1]. Overnight changes between sessions are included, because the prior close is the close of the most recent earlier day on which the primary exchange held a regular session [1]. For the first eligible day of 2026, the comparison point is the final trading day's close of 2025 [1]. The market's snapshot shows each of the seven contracts priced at 0.375 for Yes and 0.625 for No [1]. These are observed prices at a single point in time. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of any outcome. The identical prices across all seven contracts should not be read as evidence of anything beyond what the snapshot records.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which one of the seven named companies records the largest absolute single-day percentage move during calendar year 2026 [1]. It counts only regular trading hours on each company's primary exchange, using the Pyth one-minute candle for the final minute of the session [1]. Because a move in either direction counts, the contract tracks volatility of the daily price change rather than the direction of a company's performance over the year [1]. Each company's contract is a separate yes or no question within the same event, so the prices describe how each stock compares with the others on this single measure [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-17 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the single-day move calculated?
The move is the absolute value of the difference between the day's close and the prior close, divided by the prior close. Overnight changes are included, and the calculation uses full precision without rounding [1].
Do dividends affect the calculation?
No adjustment is made for dividends. Adjustments are made only for corporate actions that change a stock's price basis, such as splits, using the ratio and ex-date published in Pyth's symbol metadata [1].
What happens if a stock is halted, suspended, delisted, or acquired?
Only days on which the stock has both a valid close price and a valid prior close price count toward its largest move [1].
What happens if two stocks tie for the largest move?
The tie is resolved in favor of the company whose ticker symbol comes first in alphabetical order [1].
Which data source resolves the market?
Pyth's Close values for the relevant one-minute candles are the resolution source. If a valid Pyth value is unavailable because of a technical disruption, the primary exchange's official closing price is used for that day [1].
When does the market resolve?
The rules state that it resolves following the close of trading on the final trading day of 2026. The listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z, which is a contract listing time and not an announced event date [1].
Does a price of 0.375 mean a 37.5 percent chance?
Not necessarily. The price is a snapshot from the market at the observed time and is not an executable quote or a verified probability [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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