GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

How many Starship launches will reach space in 2026?

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How many Starship launches will reach space in 2026?

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10 markets tracked

Will above 3 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will above 3 Starship launches reach space in 2026?	Kalshi	88%
Will above 4 Starship launches reach space in 2026?	Kalshi	54%
Will above 5 Starship launches reach space in 2026?	Kalshi	32%
Will above 6 Starship launches reach space in 2026?	Kalshi	19%
Will above 7 Starship launches reach space in 2026?	Kalshi	13%
Will above 8 Starship launches reach space in 2026?	Kalshi	10%
Will above 9 Starship launches reach space in 2026?	Kalshi	6%
Will above 11 Starship launches reach space in 2026?	Kalshi	5%
Will above 10 Starship launches reach space in 2026?	Kalshi	4%
Will above 12 Starship launches reach space in 2026?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

88%

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About This Event

In 2026 If above X Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. X Starship will be considered to have reached space if its maximum altitude is at least 62 miles above sea level at any point during its flight. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Starship launches will reach space in 2026?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If above X Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. X Starship will be considered to have reached space if its maximum altitude is at least 62 miles above sea level at any point during its flight. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If above 9 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Starship will be considered to have reached space if its maximum altitude is at least 62 miles above sea level at any point during its flight. Early close condition: This market will close and expir"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will above 9 Starship launches reach space in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will above 8 Starship launches reach space in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will above 7 Starship launches reach space in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will above 6 Starship launches reach space in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will above 5 Starship launches reach space in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will above 4 Starship launches reach space in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 54.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will above 3 Starship launches reach space in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 88.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will above 12 Starship launches reach space in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will above 11 Starship launches reach space in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will above 10 Starship launches reach space in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

How many Starship launches will reach space in 2026?

Volume$0.00

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KALSHI

Will above 3 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.0¢No 12.0¢

KALSHITech

Will above 3 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

If above 3 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Starship will be considered to have reached space if its maximum altitude is at least 62 miles above sea level at any point during its flight. Early close condition: This market will close and expir

KALSHI

Will above 4 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 54.5¢No 45.5¢

KALSHITech

Will above 4 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

If above 4 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Starship will be considered to have reached space if its maximum altitude is at least 62 miles above sea level at any point during its flight. Early close condition: This market will close and expir

KALSHI

Will above 5 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 32.5¢No 67.5¢

KALSHITech

Will above 5 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

If above 5 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Starship will be considered to have reached space if its maximum altitude is at least 62 miles above sea level at any point during its flight. Early close condition: This market will close and expir

KALSHI

Will above 6 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.5¢No 81.5¢

KALSHITech

Will above 6 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

If above 6 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Starship will be considered to have reached space if its maximum altitude is at least 62 miles above sea level at any point during its flight. Early close condition: This market will close and expir

KALSHI

Will above 7 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.0¢No 87.0¢

KALSHITech

Will above 7 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

If above 7 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A Starship will be considered to have reached space if its maximum altitude is at least 62 miles above sea level at any point during its flight. Early close condition: This market will close and expir

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Will above 3 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

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Events (1)

How many Starship launches will reach space in 2026?

Markets (10)

Will above 3 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Will above 3 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Will above 4 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Will above 4 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Will above 5 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Will above 5 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Will above 6 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Will above 6 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Will above 7 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Will above 7 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

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Will above 3 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

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How many Starship launches will reach space in 2026?

Will above 3 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Will above 3 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Will above 4 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Will above 4 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

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Will above 5 Starship launches reach space in 2026?

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