Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

These three Polymarket contracts ask whether Discord shares will be listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by a given deadline. Each one resolves "Yes" if that happens by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date, and "No" otherwise [1]. The rules also state that if Discord is acquired by a company that is already public, the market resolves "No" immediately [1].

The rules name official filings and announcements as the primary resolution sources, including SEC filings such as Form S-1 and Form 8-A, exchange listing confirmations, and Discord press releases. They add that "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1]. A resolution source is therefore broader than a single filing, which matters if a reader compares these contracts with a stricter standard.

The three contracts differ only in their deadlines. The listed end times are 2026-11-01T03:59:00Z for October 31, 2026, 2026-12-01T04:59:00Z for November 30, 2026, and 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z for December 31, 2026 [1]. These timestamps correspond to 11:59 PM ET on each deadline date. A listed end time is a contract field, not an announced IPO date or a forecast of when listing will occur.

Reading the snapshot

The saved observation was taken at 2026-10-25T18:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 18:23:28Z on the same day [1]. These are snapshot times, not live prices, and they do not show what the market is quoting at the moment you read this.

At the observation time, the quoted Yes prices were 0.065 for the December 31 contract, 0.0235 for the November 30 contract, and 0.027 for the October 31 contract. The corresponding No prices were 0.935, 0.9765, and 0.973 [1]. Read as rough percentages, these prices rise with the length of the window, but they are indicative snapshot quotes, not executable prices or verified probabilities. The evidence does not include volume, bid and ask spreads, or trader counts, so it cannot show liquidity or how many people hold each view.

The three contracts are all in one provider event, and they are not separate outcomes of a single field. Each Yes price answers a different deadline, so the prices should not be averaged or combined. The October 31 snapshot also should not be compared with the other two as if they were alternatives in a single race.

What remains uncertain

The evidence contains one source, one event, and three markets. The sample includes all saved markets for this event, with no partial sampling flagged [1]. That does not establish that the provider lists every possible relevant contract.

The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, and it contains no recent news about Discord's plans. It also does not confirm whether any filing or listing has occurred. Price differences between these contracts reflect their different deadlines and rules, and they do not by themselves indicate an arbitrage opportunity.

References

1. Polymarket: Discord IPO by __?. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z.