GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETCrypto

Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Name: Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?
End: 2028-01-01T05:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$160.43K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Vol

$160.43K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $160.43K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $160.43K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Poly	12%
Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Poly	10%
Probable FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Poly	9%
Probable FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Poly	9%
Probable FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Poly	7%
Probable FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Poly	7%
Probable FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Poly	4%
Probable FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

12%

Top Probability

$160.43K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, September 27, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Probable FDV above ___ one day after launch?
**Category:** Crypto | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2028 (461 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.
"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $160.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $46.9K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.42)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $96.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $39.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Probable FDV above $200M one day after launch?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $9.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Probable FDV above $300M one day after launch?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $6.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Probable FDV above $400M one day after launch?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.4% (0.0%)]

### 6. Probable FDV above $500M one day after launch?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.2% (0.0%)]

### 7. Probable FDV above $800M one day after launch?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Probable FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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