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Event GroupKALSHIElections

NY-12 Democratic primary: 2nd place

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NY-12 Democratic primary: 2nd place

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Will Alex Bores finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Alex Bores finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?	Kalshi	100%
Will Micah Lasher finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?	Kalshi	1%
Will Jack Schlossberg finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?	Kalshi	1%
Will George Conway finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?	Kalshi	1%

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About This Event

On Jun 23, 2026 If X finishes in 2nd place in the NY-12 Democratic primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage For ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order, runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place, For two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-rou

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** NY-12 Democratic primary: 2nd place
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Jun 23, 2026

If X finishes in 2nd place in the NY-12 Democratic primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage For ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order, runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place, For two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-rou

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Micah Lasher finishes in 2nd place in the NY-12 Democratic primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Ranking is determined by the specified counting method:
For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage
For ranked choice voting"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Micah Lasher finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 23, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Jack Schlossberg finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 23, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will George Conway finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 23, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Alex Bores finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 23, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

NY-12 Democratic primary: 2nd place

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KALSHI

Will Alex Bores finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Alex Bores finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

If Alex Bores finishes in 2nd place in the NY-12 Democratic primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage For ranked choice voting:

KALSHI

Will Micah Lasher finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Micah Lasher finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

If Micah Lasher finishes in 2nd place in the NY-12 Democratic primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage For ranked choice voting

KALSHI

Will Jack Schlossberg finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Jack Schlossberg finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

If Jack Schlossberg finishes in 2nd place in the NY-12 Democratic primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage For ranked choice vo

KALSHI

Will George Conway finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will George Conway finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

If George Conway finishes in 2nd place in the NY-12 Democratic primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage For ranked choice votin

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/kbbKXJ" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="NY-12 Democratic primary: 2nd place"></iframe>

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NY-12 Democratic primary: 2nd place

NY-12 Democratic primary: 2nd place

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Will Alex Bores finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

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Events (1)

NY-12 Democratic primary: 2nd place

Markets (4)

Will Alex Bores finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

Will Alex Bores finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

Will Micah Lasher finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

Will Micah Lasher finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

Will Jack Schlossberg finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

Will Jack Schlossberg finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

Will George Conway finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

Will George Conway finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

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Will Alex Bores finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

NY-12 Democratic primary: 2nd place

Will Alex Bores finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

Will Alex Bores finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

Will Micah Lasher finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

Will Micah Lasher finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

Will Jack Schlossberg finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

Will Jack Schlossberg finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

Will George Conway finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

Will George Conway finish 2nd in the NY-12 Democratic primary?

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