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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory

Name: NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory
End: 2026-04-16T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$24.85K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory

Vol

$24.85K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $24.85K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $24.85K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by between 20% and 25%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by between 20% and 25%?	Poly	96%
Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by less than 20%Analilia Mejia	Poly	9%
Will another outcome occur in the NJ-11 Special Election?	Poly	0%
Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by 40% or more?	Poly	0%
Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by between 30% and 35%?	Poly	0%
Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by between 35% and 40%?	Poly	0%
Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by between 25% and 30%?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$24.85K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 16, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

For the "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $24.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.4K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.36)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by 40% or more?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 16, 2026): Vol $980
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by between 30% and 35%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 16, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by between 20% and 25%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 16, 2026): Vol $6.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 95.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.2% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will another outcome occur in the NJ-11 Special Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 16, 2026): Vol $865
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by between 35% and 40%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 16, 2026): Vol $5.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by between 25% and 30%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 16, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by less than 20%Analilia Mejia
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 16, 2026): Vol $5.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics