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Who will drop out of their primary?

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Who will drop out of their primary?

Vol

$0.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will James Fishback drop out of the Florida Governor primary before Aug 18, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will James Fishback drop out of the Florida Governor primary before Aug 18, 2026?	Kalshi	29%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

29%

Top Probability

$0.00

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About This Event

Various races If James Fishback drops out of the 2026 Florida Governor primary before Aug 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. “Dropped out” means any of the following: James Fishback announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign James Fishback files official withdrawal paperwork with relevant election authorities James Fishback publicly states they are no longer seeking the office James Fishback endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer runni

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will drop out of their primary?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Various races

If James Fishback drops out of the 2026 Florida Governor primary before Aug 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. “Dropped out” means any of the following:
James Fishback announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign
James Fishback files official withdrawal paperwork with relevant election authorities
James Fishback publicly states they are no longer seeking the office
James Fishback endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer runni

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If James Fishback drops out of the 2026 Florida Governor primary before Aug 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: “Dropped out” means any of the following:
James Fishback announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign
James Fishback files official wit"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will James Fishback drop out of the Florida Governor primary before Aug 18, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 25, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections