$89.55K
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$89.55K
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This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?). The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31? This market will resolve according to
Prediction markets currently assign a 60% probability to the combined outcome of no US government shutdown by January 31, 2026, and a Democratic Party victory in the 2026 House elections. This price suggests the market views this dual scenario as the most likely path forward, but with significant uncertainty remaining. The "No Shutdown & Democrats Win" outcome is the leading contract, with the three other possible combined outcomes (e.g., Shutdown & Republicans Win) sharing the remaining 40% probability. The market has attracted $90,000 in volume, which is relatively thin for a political event nearly three years from resolution.
Two primary factors are shaping this pricing. First, the historical precedent of frequent budgetary brinkmanship makes a clean resolution without a shutdown a notable, but not assured, outcome. The market may be pricing in a baseline expectation that Congress, regardless of composition, typically passes last-minute continuing resolutions to avoid full shutdowns, despite high partisan tensions. Second, the 60% price for a Democratic House win in 2026 incorporates an early advantage for the party not holding the presidency during a midterm election cycle. Historical patterns show the opposition party often gains congressional seats in a president's second midterm, which this cycle would be 2026 for a potential second Biden term or a new Republican president's first midterm.
The odds are highly sensitive to near-term political events and the 2024 election results. A decisive outcome in the 2024 presidential and congressional elections would dramatically reshape the 2026 landscape. For example, a Republican trifecta in 2024 could increase the perceived likelihood of a 2026 government shutdown due to intra-party spending disputes, while also potentially boosting Democratic House chances in the 2026 midterms as a backlash. Conversely, a Democratic trifecta might lower immediate shutdown risks but could weaken the party's 2026 House position. Key legislative deadlines for government funding in late 2024 and 2025 will serve as major short-term catalysts, testing the current market assumption that shutdowns will be avoided.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market combines two significant political questions about the United States government: whether there will be another federal government shutdown before January 31, and which political party will win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. A government shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass or the President refuses to sign appropriations legislation to fund federal government operations and agencies. The 2026 House election will determine the balance of power in the lower chamber of Congress for the second half of the decade, with significant implications for legislative priorities and presidential oversight. These two events are deeply interconnected, as the dynamics of government funding negotiations are heavily influenced by the partisan composition of Congress and the political incentives facing lawmakers. Recent years have seen frequent brinkmanship over government funding, with several shutdowns and near-shutdowns occurring since 2013. The 2026 House election represents the next major nationwide political contest following the 2024 presidential election, and its outcome will shape American politics for years to come. Market participants are analyzing legislative calendars, political polling, historical midterm patterns, and the evolving ideological landscape within both major parties to assess probabilities for these combined outcomes.
The modern era of government shutdowns began with the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974, which established the current budget process. Before 1980, agencies typically continued operating during funding gaps. The first significant shutdowns occurred in the 1990s during confrontations between President Bill Clinton and Speaker Newt Gingrich, including a 21-day shutdown from December 1995 to January 1996. The 2013 shutdown lasted 16 days after Republicans sought to defund the Affordable Care Act. The longest shutdown in U.S. history occurred from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019, lasting 35 days over a dispute about border wall funding. Since 2013, there have been four funding gaps that resulted in partial or full shutdowns. Regarding House control, the party holding the presidency has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterm elections since World War II. The 2022 midterms defied this historical pattern when Republicans gained only a narrow majority despite high inflation and a Democratic president. The 2026 election will test whether this represents a new normal or a temporary deviation from historical trends.
Government shutdowns have significant economic consequences, including delayed pay for federal workers, suspended government services, reduced economic growth, and increased uncertainty for businesses and financial markets. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the 2018-2019 shutdown reduced GDP by approximately $11 billion, with $3 billion permanently lost. Shutdowns also disrupt critical functions from food safety inspections to national park operations, affecting millions of Americans. The outcome of the 2026 House election will determine which party controls the legislative agenda, committee investigations, and impeachment power for the latter half of the 2020s. It will influence policy on taxation, healthcare, immigration, climate change, and foreign affairs. The election results will also signal the direction of American politics following the 2024 presidential contest and could either enable or constrain the administration in power. Control of redistricting following the 2030 census may also be affected by which party holds state legislatures and governorships in 2026, with long-term implications for political representation.
As of December 2024, Congress has passed short-term continuing resolutions to fund the government through early 2025, pushing the next potential shutdown deadline into the new year. The current funding agreement followed intense negotiations that linked government funding to border security measures and Ukraine aid. Both parties are already preparing for the 2026 election cycle, with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and National Republican Congressional Committee actively recruiting candidates and analyzing district maps. Redistricting litigation in several states, including New York and Alabama, could alter the congressional map before 2026. Political analysts are closely watching whether the historical pattern of the president's party losing House seats in midterms will reassert itself after the unusual 2022 results.
During a shutdown, federal agencies must cease non-essential operations, and non-essential employees are furloughed without pay. Essential services like national security, air traffic control, and border protection continue, but many government functions are disrupted. Congress typically provides back pay to furloughed workers once funding is restored.
The House majority is determined by which party wins at least 218 of the 435 seats. In the event of a 217-217 tie, the party that holds the presidency would effectively control the House through the Vice President's tie-breaking vote on organizational matters. The Speaker is elected by the full House on the first day of the new Congress.
A continuing resolution is a temporary spending bill that maintains current funding levels for government agencies when Congress has not passed regular appropriations bills by the deadline. These stopgap measures typically last from days to months and are frequently used to avoid shutdowns while negotiations continue.
Shutdowns reduce economic growth through lost productivity from federal workers, delayed government contracts, reduced consumer spending, and increased uncertainty. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the 2018-2019 shutdown reduced fourth-quarter 2018 GDP by 0.1% and first-quarter 2019 GDP by 0.2%.
House elections are influenced by presidential approval ratings, the state of the economy, national political trends, candidate quality, fundraising, redistricting, and local issues. Historically, the president's party loses seats in midterm elections, though this pattern was broken in 2022.
Yes, services deemed essential for national security, public safety, or the protection of property continue operating. This includes military operations, law enforcement, air traffic control, border protection, and certain healthcare services. Employees performing essential duties typically work without immediate pay.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 60% |
| Poly | 19% |
| Poly | 14% |
| Poly | 7% |
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