Will Avengers: Doomsday be delayed?
PM $5.5K
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Will Avengers: Doomsday be delayed?
PM $5.5K
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Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 20, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, Yes is priced at 3.9% on Polymarket.
Polymarket
- Yes3.9%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $5.5K
Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 20, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Avengers: Doomsday is expected to be released on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new release date later than the one stated above is officially announced by December 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must be made through official communication channels of a competent entity such as the studio, distributor, production, or a parent company, or a subsidiary, or authorized representative thereof. Resolution will be based on official statements from competent entities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract asks whether the release of Avengers: Doomsday will be delayed past December 18, 2026. The rule states: "If Avengers: Doomsday's release is delayed past December 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes." [1] December 18, 2026 is the threshold in the contract rules. It is not a date the evidence says has been announced for any release or delay. The rules also say the market "will close and expire early if the event occurs." [1]
The contract is listed on Kalshi under the event title "Will Avengers: Doomsday be delayed?" [1] The source notes that the market is not endorsed by Disney. [1]
Reading the snapshot
The saved record shows a Yes price of 0.055 and a No price of 0.945. [1] These are snapshot prices from the provider's observation at 03:00 UTC on October 13, 2026. The retrieval time for the source was 04:23 UTC the same day. A snapshot is not an executable quote, and it is not a verified probability that a delay will happen.
The saved record also lists an end date of December 25, 2026, at 15:00 UTC. [1] This is a provider field. It is not the same as the December 18 threshold in the rules, and the evidence does not say it marks an announced event. The source excerpt states that the listed end time is "not supplied," so the end date should be read as a data field only.
This sample covers one market from one provider event. Coverage shows one total market, one included, and no partial sample. [1] Because there is only one contract here, no other outcomes or platforms are being compared.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the price is where it is. It does not show trader counts, volume, liquidity, recent news about the film, or any history of how accurate this kind of market has been. Volume would not indicate how many people agree with the price, and a price is not a forecast verified by outcomes.
The evidence also does not establish that a release date has been set or changed. Any reader who checks this contract later should look at a fresh snapshot, since the figures above describe only the October 13, 2026 observation.
References
- Kalshi: Will Avengers: Doomsday be delayed?. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved record covers one Kalshi market asking whether Avengers: Doomsday will be delayed [1]. The rules say that if the release is delayed past December 18, 2026, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The excerpt also notes that the market "will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1]. The December 18, 2026 date is the contract's threshold, not an announced release or delay date, so the snapshot does not show whether any delay has been announced.
The rules also state that the market is not endorsed by Disney [1]. That disclaimer concerns affiliation and does not affect how the contract resolves.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-13 03:00 UTC, and the source was retrieved at 04:22 UTC [1]. The prices below describe that observation only. They are not live quotes for today.
- Yes: 0.055
- No: 0.945
These figures are the saved prices for the two outcomes at that time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. A low Yes price means only that the saved market priced that outcome low at observation time.
The saved market record lists an end date of 2026-12-25 15:00 UTC [1]. This differs from the December 18, 2026 threshold in the rules, and the excerpt itself says the listed end time is "not supplied." Readers should treat the end date as a provider field, not as confirmation of when the event will be decided or when trading closes under the contract terms.
The sample covers one market from one platform, with no partial sample flag [1]. There is no second contract to compare, so no cross-platform comparison is possible.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the Yes price is where it is, how many traders hold each position, or whether any news bears on a delay. It also does not show the current price, since the snapshot is about three hours old when retrieved and the provider status was active at that time [1]. The record does not establish whether the provider lists every possible outcome for this question, though this sample contains only the Yes and No outcomes of the single saved market [1].
References
- Kalshi: Will Avengers: Doomsday be delayed?. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 13, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks whether Avengers: Doomsday will be delayed past December 18, 2026. Under the contract rules, if the film's release is delayed past that date, the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise it resolves to No. The rules also state that the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The provider excerpt does not list an end time. The saved market record carries an end date of December 25, 2026 at 15:00 UTC, but that is a record field, not a confirmed resolution date, and the contract rules do not identify it as one [1]. The film itself is described in Wikipedia as an upcoming American superhero film produced by Marvel Studios and distributed by Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures. It is intended as the sequel to Avengers: Endgame (2019) and the 39th film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe [2]. The contract's December 18, 2026 date is a threshold written into the rules. It should not be read as an announced release date from the supplied sources, and the sources do not establish whether the film is currently scheduled for that date [1][2]. The contract rules include a disclaimer that the market is not endorsed by Disney and that references to Disney or associated marks are descriptive only [1]. This means the contract is a prediction question about a release timing threshold, not an official statement from the studio.
Historical Context
Wikipedia's production article describes Avengers: Doomsday as the fifth installment in the Avengers film series, following Avengers: Endgame (2019), and as the 39th film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Secret Wars is described as the sixth installment and the 40th MCU film [3]. The sources describe the film's storyline in general terms, with the Avengers, Wakandans, New Avengers, Fantastic Four, and X-Men facing Doctor Doom [2][3]. The sources do not provide a production timeline or any history of release date changes, so they cannot say whether the film has previously been delayed.
Why It Matters
The contract measures one specific event: whether the film's release is pushed past December 18, 2026. The rules describe a Yes outcome only if that delay occurs [1]. Because the film is described as upcoming in the background sources [2], the question concerns a future scheduling decision that these sources do not report. A price on this contract reflects how participants value that outcome at the time of the snapshot. The price is not a verified probability of delay [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-13 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as a Yes resolution?
The contract resolves to Yes if Avengers: Doomsday's release is delayed past December 18, 2026 [1].
What happens if the event occurs before the listed end date?
The contract rules state that the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1].
Does the December 18, 2026 date mean the film is scheduled for that day?
The contract uses December 18, 2026 as the threshold for a delay. The supplied sources do not establish a current release schedule, so the date should not be read as an announced release [1][2].
Is this contract endorsed by Disney?
No. The rules state that the market and its products have not been endorsed by Disney, and that references to Disney or associated marks are descriptive only [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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