GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Cape Verde Presidential Election Winner

Name: Cape Verde Presidential Election Winner
End: 2026-11-15T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$20.81K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Cape Verde Presidential Election Winner

Vol

$20.81K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $20.81K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $20.81K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will José Maria Neves win the Cape Verde presidential election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will José Maria Neves win the Cape Verde presidential election?	Poly	78%
Will Joana Rosa win the Cape Verde presidential election?	Poly	6%
Will Janine Lélis win the Cape Verde presidential election?	Poly	4%
Will Casimiro de Pina win the Cape Verde presidential election?	Poly	2%
Will Péricles Tavares win the Cape Verde presidential election?	Poly	2%
Will Milton Paiva win the Cape Verde presidential election?	Poly	1%
Will Fernando Delgado win the Cape Verde presidential election?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

78%

Top Probability

$20.81K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round to be held on November 29, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Cape Verde Presidential Election Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 15, 2026 (72 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round to be held on November 29, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.

This market includes any potential second round. 

If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round to be held on November 29, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $20.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $70.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.29)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Joana Rosa win the Cape Verde presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Janine Lélis win the Cape Verde presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Casimiro de Pina win the Cape Verde presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $640
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Milton Paiva win the Cape Verde presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $394
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Péricles Tavares win the Cape Verde presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $772
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Fernando Delgado win the Cape Verde presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $375
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will José Maria Neves win the Cape Verde presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 15, 2026): Vol $13.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 78.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics