Ukraine coup attempt by...?
PM $174.6K
1
2
Ukraine coup attempt by...?
PM $174.6K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31, 2027 at 20.5%.
Polymarket
- December 31, 202720.5%
- December 31, 20262.9%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $174.6K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied Polymarket event asks whether a coup attempt will be widely reported in Ukraine. The rules define a coup attempt as "a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership" [1]. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest do not alone qualify [1]. Government claims that a plot was foiled count only if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt [1].
The rule text says the market resolves "Yes" if such an attempt occurs "between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET" [1]. The two saved markets, however, have different titles and listed end times. "Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2027?" lists an end time of 2028-01-01T04:59:00.000Z, and "Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2026?" lists 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The June 30, 2026 wording is earlier than the observation time, so this evidence does not show how it maps to the listed windows. Readers should check the provider's full rules before comparing the contracts.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-23T01:56:58.343Z [1]. The prices below describe that snapshot only and are not current quotes. The contract ending December 31, 2027 showed Yes at 0.24 and No at 0.76 [1]. The contract ending December 31, 2026 showed Yes at 0.065 and No at 0.935 [1].
The contracts have different end dates, so their prices should not be treated as interchangeable. The difference between them is not an arbitrage signal. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The supplied volume figures do not indicate liquidity or the number of traders.
The sample includes both saved markets for this provider event, so it is not partial [1]. This does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are. It includes no news, trader counts, or forecasting track record. The market status is listed as active [1], so the supplied evidence does not show a resolution. Whether either contract resolves "Yes" depends on the governing rules and on reporting that occurs before the listed close.
References
- Polymarket: Ukraine coup attempt by...?. Provider data observed 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 23, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
PredictPedia's contract asks whether a coup attempt in Ukraine will be widely reported in a set window. The main event page is titled "Ukraine coup attempt by...?" and is hosted on Polymarket [1]. Its rules say the market resolves "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine between market creation and a stated end point, and "No" otherwise [1]. The rules define a coup attempt as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors, or factions of them, to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership [1]. The rules state that revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify [1]. The rules also address government claims that a plot was foiled. Such a claim counts toward a "Yes" resolution only if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt [1]. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup do not qualify [1]. The resolution source is described as a consensus of credible reporting [1]. The event page lists two individual markets. One asks about a coup attempt by December 31, 2026, and the other asks about one by December 31, 2027 [1]. The rule text in the saved event excerpt, however, refers to a deadline of June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET [1]. The saved text does not explain this difference, so readers should check the exact rules on the provider page before relying on a specific end date. The listed end times for the markets are in early January of 2027 and 2028 in UTC [1].
Historical Context
In November 2021, top Ukrainian government officials outlined allegations of a plot to overthrow the democratically elected government of Ukraine, which was reportedly to take place in early December of that year [2]. The allegations said the plot was orchestrated by Russia, and Russia denied involvement [2]. Some months later, Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine, and toppling the Ukrainian government was one of its stated objectives [2]. On 1 July 2024, the SBU said it had foiled a pro-Russian attempt to overthrow the government of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy by members of a Kyiv-based NGO [3]. These entries describe official claims and allegations. The available excerpts do not show whether credible independent sources characterized either event as a coup attempt under the contract's standard.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a coup attempt in Ukraine is widely reported within its window, using the definition and resolution rules stated by the provider [1]. The key distinction is between an attempted seizure of power and a foiled plot. A government announcement of an arrest or disruption does not count alone, and it needs independent reporting that explicitly calls the event a coup attempt [1]. Because the two listed markets use different end dates, a reader should compare each market's stated end time with the rule language [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-23 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as a coup attempt under this contract?
A coup attempt is a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors, or factions of them, to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify [1].
Does a foiled plot count as a coup attempt?
Not by itself. Claims that a coup attempt was foiled count toward a "Yes" resolution only if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests without any attempted execution do not qualify [1].
Who decides the outcome?
The rules state that the resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting [1].
Do the Wikipedia background pages confirm that a coup occurred?
No. The Wikipedia pages summarize allegations and official statements about past plots, including the 2021 allegations and the SBU's July 2024 announcement [2][3]. They are background references and do not establish how the contract would resolve.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
