How many House seats will the Democrats win in Minnesota?
PM $18.3K
1
5
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Minnesota?
PM $18.3K
1
5
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 4 at 67.5%.
Polymarket
- 467.5%
- 524%
- 6+4.9%
- 32.7%
- <31.3%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $18.3K
Reported volume · provider units
5
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Minnesota in the 2026 United States midterm election. All Minnesota US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks how many U.S. House seats the Democratic Party will win in Minnesota in the 2026 United States midterm election [1]. The market resolves according to the number of seats the Democratic Party wins there, and special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are excluded [1]. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected, so a later change in party affiliation does not move a seat [1]. Independents who formally caucus, or announce an intent to caucus, with a party before election day count toward that party [1]. If those caucus decisions cannot be determined by election day, the market may stay open until the earlier of an announcement or January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. These are contract rules, not a record of results.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-16T02:32:29.902Z [1]. The prices describe the saved provider data at those times. They are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The saved coverage includes five Polymarket markets from this event, all included, with no partial sample [1]. The Yes prices were 0.70 for exactly 4 seats, 0.185 for exactly 5 seats, 0.039 for 6 or more seats, 0.0275 for exactly 3 seats, and 0.012 for fewer than 3 seats [1]. The exactly 4 seats contract had the highest Yes price in this snapshot. The Yes prices sum to about 0.96, so they do not form a complete calibrated distribution. A 0.70 price should not be read as a forecast that Democrats will win four seats.
The excerpt does not report liquidity or trader counts, so no conclusions about depth or participation can be drawn from it.
What remains uncertain
The sample covers only this saved Polymarket event. The source notes that the providers do not establish a list of every possible real-world outcome [1]. No contracts from other platforms are supplied, so cross-platform comparisons cannot be made. Any comparison would also need matching wording and close times. The independent caucus clause could extend the market beyond the listed end time [1]. The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, and it contains no recent news about the race.
References
- Polymarket: How many House seats will the Democrats win in Minnesota?. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
PredictPedia's House seat contract asks how many U.S. House seats the Democratic Party will win in Minnesota in the 2026 United States midterm election. The event page describes the market as resolving according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Minnesota in that election [1]. The saved event is organized as a set of separate contracts, each asking whether Democrats will win a specific count, such as exactly 4 seats, exactly 5 seats, or 6 or more seats [1]. Each contract has its own Yes and No prices, so a reader can see how the event is split across counts. The contract covers all Minnesota U.S. House elections held as part of the 2026 midterm that elect voting members for the 120th Congress [1]. Special elections to fill an unexpired term are excluded, even when they are held on the same day as the midterm [1]. Runoffs for qualifying elections determine which party is attributed a seat [1]. A separate Minnesota Senate contest exists, but it is not part of this House seat count. The Minnesota Senate election is described as being held on November 3, 2026 [2], which is a different race from the House seats counted here. The saved event lists five contracts. Their snapshot prices range from about 0.012 for fewer than 3 seats to 0.70 for exactly 4 seats [1]. These figures are price snapshots from the provider data, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The five contracts are the full set of markets saved for this event, but the saved data does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed.
Historical Context
Midterm elections are held in the middle of a presidential term. The 2018 midterms are described as elections in which all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were contested, and in which the Democratic Party won control of the House [3]. That source is general background on a different election cycle and does not describe Minnesota's House delegation or the 2026 races.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single count: how many Minnesota U.S. House seats the Democratic Party wins in the 2026 midterm. It is useful for following how the state's House outcome is being priced across several possible counts [1]. Because seats are attributed to the party under which a member was elected, the count follows party labels on the ballot rather than later changes in affiliation [1]. Independents who formally caucus, or announce an intent to caucus, with a party before election day are counted in that party's total [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Are special elections included in this contract?
No. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not they are held together with the 2026 midterm [1].
What happens if a member-elect changes party after election day?
The seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected, even if the member changes party affiliation or vacates the seat after the election [1].
How are independents treated?
Independents elected to the House who formally caucus, or announce an intent to caucus, with a party before election day are included in that party's count. If their caucus decisions cannot be determined by election day, the market may stay open until the earlier of an announcement or January 4 at 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no announcement is made by then, the member does not count toward any party's total [1].
What sources determine the result?
The contract names official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting as its resolution sources [1].
Does the listed end time mean the election is on that date?
No. The listed end time for the contract is November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC [1]. It is a date in the contract data and is not an announced event date. The contract's rules describe the election as the 2026 midterm, and the separate Senate article gives November 3, 2026 for the Minnesota Senate election [2].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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