NJ-11 special election margin of victory? (Higher strikes) | PredictPedia

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Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 50%?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 50%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 47%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 44%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 41%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 38%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 35%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 32%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 29%?	Kalshi	1%
Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 26%?	Kalshi	1%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** NJ-11 special election margin of victory? (Higher strikes)
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Apr 16, 2026

If the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election falls within X to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Analilia Mejia minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Analilia Mejia if Analilia Mejia wins

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election falls within 50% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

Fo"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 16, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 47%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 16, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 44%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 16, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 41%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 16, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 38%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 16, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 35%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 16, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 32%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 16, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 29%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 16, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 26%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 16, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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NJ-11 special election margin of victory? (Higher strikes)

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Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 50%?

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Events (1)

NJ-11 special election margin of victory? (Higher strikes)

Markets (9)

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 50%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 50%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 47%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 47%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 44%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 44%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 41%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 41%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 38%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 38%?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 50%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

NJ-11 special election margin of victory? (Higher strikes)

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 50%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 50%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 47%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 47%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 44%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 44%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 41%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 41%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 38%?

Will the margin of victory for Analilia Mejia in the 2026 NJ-11 special election be above 38%?

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