Kim Jong Un visits the US in 2026?
PM $354.77
1
1
Kim Jong Un visits the US in 2026?
PM $354.77
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, Yes is priced at 3.3% on Polymarket.
Polymarket
- Yes3.3%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $354.77
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong Un visits the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Kim Jong Un physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Kim Jong Un enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For purposes of this market, territory of the United States excludes military bases or diplomatic compounds that are not otherwise within the sovereign territory of the United States. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US or North Korea, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract asks whether Kim Jong Un will visit the United States during a defined window. The rules state that the market "will resolve to 'Yes' if Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong Un visits the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET" [1]. A "visit" is defined as "Kim Jong Un physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States," and entering US airspace does not count [1]. The rules also exclude "military bases or diplomatic compounds that are not otherwise within the sovereign territory of the United States" [1]. The primary resolution source is "official information from the US or North Korea," with "a consensus of credible reporting" as a secondary input [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T21:57:59.010Z [1]. It records one market in one provider event, with the status "active" [1]. The "Yes" outcome was priced at 0.0315 and the "No" outcome at 0.9685 [1]. These are observed snapshot values, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
The listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z, which is given in UTC [1]. The rules state the deadline in Eastern Time as 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026 [1]. Readers comparing these should note the time zone difference rather than treat the two timestamps as different deadlines.
The coverage record shows one market, all of it included, and marks the sample as not partial [1]. Because only this one provider event is present, there is no cross-platform comparison here. Volume and trader counts are not in the evidence, so the snapshot says nothing about liquidity or how many people hold each view.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices are where they are, and this summary does not infer a cause. It also contains no news about any planned visit, and it does not establish how this contract has performed against actual outcomes. Whether the market will resolve "Yes" or "No" is not known from this record.
Prices can change after the observation time, so this snapshot should not be read as current. Any comparison with a contract on another platform should first check whether the wording, window, and close time match.
References
- Polymarket: Kim Jong Un visits the US in 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This market asks whether Kim Jong Un, described in the contract rules as the Supreme Leader of North Korea, will visit the United States in 2026. It is a Yes or No contract listed on Polymarket. Under its rules, the market resolves to Yes if he visits the United States between the time the market was created and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. If no visit occurs in that window, it resolves to No [1]. The rules define a visit narrowly. It counts only when Kim Jong Un physically enters the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether he enters US airspace during the market's timeframe has no bearing on a Yes resolution. The rules also exclude military bases or diplomatic compounds that are not otherwise part of US sovereign territory [1]. For resolution, the primary source is official information from the United States or North Korea. The rules state that a consensus of credible reporting will also be used [1]. The listed end time in the provider data is 04:59 UTC on January 1, 2027, which matches the December 31, 2026 11:59 PM Eastern deadline in the rules [1]. That end time is a term of the contract, not a scheduled event or an announced visit.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single, specific event: whether Kim Jong Un physically enters United States territory between market creation and the end of 2026. Because the definition of a visit is limited to physical entry into US terrestrial or maritime territory, flyovers and presence on excluded military or diplomatic sites would not count under the rules [1]. Readers should treat the contract as a question about that defined outcome, not a forecast of diplomatic relations. The contract text itself does not describe any planned trip [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as a visit under this market?
A visit means Kim Jong Un physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Entering US airspace alone does not change the outcome, and military bases or diplomatic compounds that are not otherwise US sovereign territory are excluded [1].
What is the resolution deadline?
The rules resolve the market based on visits made before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time. The provider's listed end time is 04:59 UTC on January 1, 2027, which corresponds to that deadline [1].
What sources will decide the outcome?
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States or North Korea. A consensus of credible reporting will also be used [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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