This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETScience

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?

Name: Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?
End: 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$18.70K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?

Vol

$18.70K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $18.70K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $18.70K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?	Poly	76%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 15, 2026?	Poly	50%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?	Poly	46%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

76%

Top Probability

$18.70K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Ear"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.6K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.28)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 75.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 15, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETScience