Name: Gemini 3 score on FrontierMath Benchmark by January 31?
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z

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Gemini 3 score on FrontierMath Benchmark by January 31? | PredictPedia

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4 markets tracked

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	Poly	42%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	Poly	13%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?	Poly	6%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	Poly	3%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Gemini 3 score on FrontierMath Benchmark by January 31?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 31, 2026 (16 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini 3 model achieves a score of 70% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.

The primary resolutio

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini 3 model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (htt"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.32M
* **Total Liquidity:** $58.3K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 22.64)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $343.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $342.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $269.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.3% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $364.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

15d 17h remaining

Jan 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

16¢

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Gemini 3 score on FrontierMath Benchmark by January 31?

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Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

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Events (1)

Gemini 3 score on FrontierMath Benchmark by January 31?

Markets (4)

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

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Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Gemini 3 score on FrontierMath Benchmark by January 31?

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?

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