Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
PM $64.66M · K 114.23M contracts
2
9
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
PM $64.66M · K 114.23M contracts
2
9
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 3, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democrats Sweep at 75.5%, and on Kalshi it is Democrats sweep at 72.5%.
Polymarket
- Democrats Sweep75.5%
- R Senate, D House20.5%
- Republicans Sweep5.5%
- D Senate, R House0.4%
- Other<0.1%
Kalshi
- Democrats sweep72.5%
- D-House, R-Senate21.5%
- Republicans sweep6.9%
- R-House, D-Senate0.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $64.66M · K 114.23M contracts
Reported volume · provider units
9
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 3, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chambers. For determining Senate control, all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For determining House control, all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-01T12:00:06.470Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The two platforms list contracts on the same underlying question, which chamber of Congress each party controls, but their wording differs. Kalshi's event asks about combinations for "Feb 2027." Its contracts resolve Yes only if "ALL of the following occur," and "If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No" [1]. Kalshi's excerpt also notes that "Each CONTROL component may resolve on an accelerated basis as outlined in the full rules" [1], and the full rules were not supplied.
Polymarket's event resolves according to "the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election" [2]. Its rules include tie-breaking provisions, seat-counting conventions, and a possible extension for independents' caucus decisions, which "may remain open until the earlier of" an announcement or "January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year" [2].
Reading the snapshot
The observation time for both events is 2026-11-01T12:00:06.470Z, and the sources were retrieved at 2026-11-01T13:52:36.073Z [1][2]. These are past snapshots of quoted prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
On Kalshi, the Yes prices for the four combinations are 0.705 (House Democratic and Senate Democratic), 0.265 (House Democratic and Senate Republican), 0.066 (House Republican and Senate Republican), and 0.0045 (House Republican and Senate Democratic) [1]. On Polymarket, the Yes prices are 0.715 (Senate Democratic and House Democratic), 0.225 (Senate Republican and House Democratic), 0.045 (Senate Republican and House Republican), 0.0065 (Senate Democratic and House Republican), and 0.0005 for "Other" [2]. Each platform's sample includes all saved markets for its event, but the Polymarket "Other" outcome is a separate category that Kalshi does not list.
Comparing the two platforms' Democratic-Democratic prices is useful only with the timing and wording differences in mind. Kalshi's contract is tied to "Feb 2027" with a listed close of 2027-02-08T15:00:00.000Z, while Polymarket's listed end is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1][2]. These are different contracts, so their prices should not be averaged or treated as an arbitrage signal.
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence does not explain why any price moved or how many traders hold each view. The Kalshi event-level end time is listed as "not supplied" [1], though individual markets carry an end date. The sample warning states that the providers' lists may not include every possible real-world outcome [2].
References
- Kalshi: 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?. Provider data observed 2026-11-01T12:00:06.470Z.
- Polymarket: Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms. Provider data observed 2026-11-01T12:00:06.470Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 1, 2026 UTCOverview
The Balance of Power contracts ask which party will control the United States Senate and the United States House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections. The supplied material includes two platform events on this question. Kalshi's event is titled "2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?" and its combination contracts are scoped to February 2027 [1]. Polymarket's event, "Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms," resolves according to the party that controls each chamber following the 2026 midterm election [2]. The Kalshi contracts are combinations that pair a House outcome with a Senate outcome. Its rules state that the market "requires ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out," and that if any single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract resolves to No [1]. Each component follows a CONTROL ruleset, and those components may resolve on an accelerated basis under the full rules [1]. The excerpt does not include the full rules, so the details of accelerated resolution cannot be described further. The Polymarket event uses a single-event structure with separate outcomes for each combination. Its rules define Senate control as a majority of voting seats. If no party holds a majority, the party that wins half of the seats and holds the Vice Presidency controls the chamber, and a further tiebreak uses the party of the first selected President Pro Tempore of the next Congress [2]. House control follows a majority of voting seats, with a fallback to the party of the first elected Speaker of the next Congress if no majority exists [2]. Seats contested in the election are attributed to the party under which the member was elected, and uncontested seats are attributed to the party holding them on election day [2]. Independents count toward a party if they formally caucus with it or announce an intent to do so [2]. Runoffs determine seat attribution even if they occur after November 2026 [2]. The saved snapshot includes four Kalshi combinations and five Polymarket outcomes, including an "Other" outcome [1][2]. Every saved market for these events is included, so the sample covers the full saved set. That does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome. Prices are snapshot values, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Each platform runs a separate event with its own rules, so differences in price between them do not by themselves indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
Historical Context
The most recent midterm described in the supplied sources is the 2022 cycle. Elections were held on November 8, 2022, and all 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats were contested to determine the 118th Congress [4]. The Republican Party underperformed expectations, failing to secure control of the Senate and winning a bare majority in the House [4]. This is historical background and does not describe the 2026 contests or their current status.
Why It Matters
These contracts measure how control of each chamber of Congress will be divided after the 2026 midterm elections. On Kalshi, a combination contract pays out only if every named component occurs, so the price reflects the joint outcome rather than either chamber alone [1]. On Polymarket, each contract corresponds to one named combination of Senate and House control, with resolution based on the rules for counting seats, runoffs, and independent caucus decisions [2]. The listed Polymarket end time in the saved record is 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z, but the rules also allow a market to remain open for independent caucus decisions until the earlier of an announcement or January 4 at 11:59 PM ET of the following year [2]. The listed end time therefore should not be read as the final resolution date.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-01 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a Kalshi combination contract pay out if only one chamber goes a certain way?
No. The Kalshi rules state that the market requires all specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out, and if any single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the contract resolves to No [1].
How does Polymarket decide which party controls the Senate if no party wins a majority?
Under the stated rules, if no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency controls the chamber. If the outcome remains ambiguous, the party of the first selected President Pro Tempore of the next Congress is used [2].
How are independent members counted?
Independents who formally caucus with a party, or who announce an intent to caucus with one if newly elected, are included in that party's count. If caucus decisions cannot be determined on election day, the market may remain open until the earlier of an announcement or January 4 at 11:59 PM ET of the following year. If no announcement is made by then, the member does not count toward any party's total [2].
Do runoffs after November 2026 affect the result?
Yes, according to the Polymarket rules. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result determines attribution of that seat, even if the runoff takes place after November 2026 [2].
Why might the two platforms show different prices for similar questions?
The platforms run separate events with different contract structures and rules. Kalshi uses combination contracts that require all named components to occur [1], while Polymarket uses a single event with its own seat-counting and resolution rules [2]. Prices are snapshots and are not executable quotes, so differences between them do not by themselves indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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