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How many states will elect a governor and senator from different parties this year? (Directional)

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How many states will elect a governor and senator from different parties this year? (Directional)

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Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 1 2026 midterms?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 1 2026 midterms?	Kalshi	96%
Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 2 2026 midterms?	Kalshi	95%
Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 3 2026 midterms?	Kalshi	81%
Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 4 2026 midterms?	Kalshi	60%
Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 5 2026 midterms?	Kalshi	40%
Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 6 2026 midterms?	Kalshi	17%
Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 7 2026 midterms?	Kalshi	14%
Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 8 2026 midterms?	Kalshi	8%

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96%

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About This Event

2026 midterms If the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election, including special elections, are nominees of different political parties is at least X then the market resolves to Yes. If a runoff is required to determine the winner of any race, the runoff result governs. Candidates elected as independents or without a party nomination are considered a different party from any party nominee.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many states will elect a governor and senator from different parties this year? (Directional)
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026 midterms

If the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election, including special elections, are nominees of different political parties is at least X then the market resolves to Yes. If a runoff is required to determine the winner of any race, the runoff result governs. Candidates elected as independents or without a party nomination are considered a different party from any party nominee.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties is at least 8, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If a runoff is requi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 8 2026 midterms?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 7 2026 midterms?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 6 2026 midterms?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 5 2026 midterms?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 4 2026 midterms?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 59.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 3 2026 midterms?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 80.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 2 2026 midterms?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 1 2026 midterms?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

How many states will elect a governor and senator from different parties this year? (Directional)

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KALSHI

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 1 2026 midterms?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.5¢No 4.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 1 2026 midterms?

If the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties is at least 1, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If a runoff is requi

KALSHI

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 2 2026 midterms?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.5¢No 5.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 2 2026 midterms?

If the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties is at least 2, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If a runoff is requi

KALSHI

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 3 2026 midterms?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 80.5¢No 19.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 3 2026 midterms?

If the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties is at least 3, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If a runoff is requi

KALSHI

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 4 2026 midterms?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 59.5¢No 40.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 4 2026 midterms?

If the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties is at least 4, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If a runoff is requi

KALSHI

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 5 2026 midterms?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 39.5¢No 60.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 5 2026 midterms?

If the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties is at least 5, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If a runoff is requi

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How many states will elect a governor and senator from different parties this year? (Directional)

How many states will elect a governor and senator from different parties this year? (Directional)

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Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 1 2026 midterms?

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Events (1)

How many states will elect a governor and senator from different parties this year? (Directional)

Markets (8)

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 1 2026 midterms?

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 1 2026 midterms?

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 2 2026 midterms?

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 2 2026 midterms?

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 3 2026 midterms?

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 3 2026 midterms?

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 4 2026 midterms?

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 4 2026 midterms?

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 5 2026 midterms?

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 5 2026 midterms?

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Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 1 2026 midterms?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many states will elect a governor and senator from different parties this year? (Directional)

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 1 2026 midterms?

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 1 2026 midterms?

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 2 2026 midterms?

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 2 2026 midterms?

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 3 2026 midterms?

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 3 2026 midterms?

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 4 2026 midterms?

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 4 2026 midterms?

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 5 2026 midterms?

Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 5 2026 midterms?

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