Current Market Outlook

Kalshi traders give this a 7% chance, meaning the market sees an expungement resolution passing the House before January 2027. That is a long shot. The 7 cents price reflects a consensus that Republican leadership will not prioritize this, even with a unified government in 2025.

The market is not pricing in any serious chance of the Senate taking it up, because the question only covers House passage. If the House bill were to pass, the odds of Senate action would be a separate, even lower-probability question.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

The main reason this is at 7% is simple math. Expunging an impeachment requires a majority vote in the House. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority, and the expungement resolution would need near-unanimous GOP support. But some House Republicans have publicly said they oppose the idea, arguing it sets a bad precedent for future presidents of either party.

The 2022 midterms gave Republicans only a 4-seat margin. With that slim majority, a handful of defectors can kill any bill. Even if Republicans win a larger majority in 2024, the expungement push would compete with other legislative priorities like funding the government, reauthorizing farm bills, and responding to crises.

The second factor is the calendar. The market runs through January 2027, but the window for action is really 2025. By 2026, the midterm election cycle begins, and incumbents get skittish about controversial votes. If nothing happens in the first half of 2025, the odds drop to near zero.

What Could Change These Odds

A Republican landslide in November 2024 that delivers a 20+ seat majority would push these odds higher, maybe to 25-30 cents. That would give leadership the cushion to lose 10-15 votes and still pass the bill.

The wild card is Trump himself. If he publicly demands expungement as a loyalty test for House Republicans, the pressure on holdouts intensifies. Trump still holds enormous sway with the base, and primary threats could flip some no votes.

But the biggest risk to the current 7% price is that it might be too high. If the 2024 election produces a divided government or a Democratic House, this market goes to zero instantly. With the race for the House genuinely competitive, a 7% price on a yes outcome that requires both a GOP House and near-unanimous GOP support looks generous to sellers.