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Events
GroupKALSHI

2030 Mexico Presidential election winner? (Party)

2030 Mexico Presidential election winner? (Party)
Vol

K 0 contracts

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Events

1

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Markets

4

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Nov 1, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Morena at 60%.

Kalshi

  1. Morena60%
  2. PAN20%
  3. MC10%
  4. PRI4.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 0 contracts

Reported volume · provider units

4

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Nov 1, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC

About This Event

in 2030 If X wins the 2030 Mexican presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Winning party: The party of the winning candidate is the party named as that candidate's party of origin in the coalition agreement registered with the National Electoral Institute, INE, for the election. X candidate registered by a single party without a coalition belongs to that party. If the agreement names no party of origin, the party of the winning candidate is the coalition party with the most votes for President in INE's district computations, after votes marked for more than one coalition party are distributed among those parties. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

KalshiPolitics
2030 Mexico Presidential election winner?

2030 Mexico Presidential election winner?

K 234.87 contracts
Will Omar García Harfuch win the 2030 Mexican presidential election?Yes 7%
Will Clara Brugada win the 2030 Mexican presidential election?Yes 6%
Will Ricardo Salinas Pliego win the 2030 Mexican presidential election?Yes 5.5%
+10 moreNext deadline Jun 2, 2031 UTC
KalshiPolitics
2030 Brazil Presidential election winner? (Party)

2030 Brazil Presidential election winner? (Party)

K 7.8K contracts
Will PT win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 33%
Will Republicanos win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 22.5%
Will PL win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 22%
+4 moreNext deadline Oct 27, 2031 UTC
PolymarketKalshiPolitics
Argentina Presidential Election Winner

Argentina Presidential Election Winner

PM $1.23M · K 82.6K contracts

Will Javier Milei win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

Kalshi: Who will win the next Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)

Related contracts

PM Yes 64%Rules differK Yes 49.5%

Will Javier Milei win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

Kalshi: Will Javier Milei win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 64%Rules differK Yes 55%

Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

Kalshi: Will Javier Milei win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

Related contracts

PM Yes 43.5%Rules differK Yes 55%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

41 saved comparisonsNext deadline Sep 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
2030 Brazil Presidential election winner?

2030 Brazil Presidential election winner?

K 68.3 contracts
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 8.5%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 5.5%
Will João Campos win the 2030 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 4.5%
+9 moreNext deadline Oct 27, 2031 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
New Mexico Senate Election Margin of Victory

New Mexico Senate Election Margin of Victory

PM $19.3K
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Mexico Senate election by 21% or more?Yes 44.5%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Mexico Senate election by 18%-21%?Yes 23.5%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Mexico Senate election by 15%-18%?Yes 14.5%
+7 moreNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
New Mexico Governor Election Margin of Victory

New Mexico Governor Election Margin of Victory

PM $18.7K
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial election by 5%-10%?Yes 30.5%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?Yes 24%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?Yes 14.5%
+5 moreNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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