This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Guam Governor Democratic Primary Winner

Name: Guam Governor Democratic Primary Winner
End: 2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$16.96K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Guam Governor Democratic Primary Winner

Vol

$16.96K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $16.96K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $16.96K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?	Poly	59%
Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?	Poly	31%
Will Joe S. San Agustin win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?	Poly	11%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

59%

Top Probability

$16.96K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Guam, scheduled to take place on August 1, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Guam Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Guam Democratic Party; however, an overwhelmi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, July 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Guam Governor Democratic Primary Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Aug 1, 2026 (17 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Guam, scheduled to take place on August 1, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Guam Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Guam Democratic Party; however, an overwhelmi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Guam, scheduled to take place on August 1, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Guam Gubernatorial Democratic Primar"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $17.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $22.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.74)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 1, 2026): Vol $9.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Joe S. San Agustin win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 1, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 1, 2026): Vol $5.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 58.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics