PredictPedia's ChatGPT outage event asks whether OpenAI's ChatGPT service will experience a qualifying outage by a set date. ChatGPT is a generative AI chatbot developed by OpenAI that uses large language models to generate text, speech, and images in response to user prompts [2]. Because the product is a live online service, its operational reliability can be tracked through a public status page, and the contract is built around that record. The contract resolves to "Yes" if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' between market creation and the specified calendar day (ET). Otherwise it resolves to "No" [1]. The qualifying test is tied to the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT at status.openai.com. A day counts as a qualifying incident if that day's status box is shaded red for Partial/Full Outage once it is finalized. Green indicates no incidents and yellow indicates degraded performance [1]. The contract is narrower than a general question about whether something went wrong. Only incidents that list ChatGPT under 'Affected components' are considered. Incidents labeled as affecting APIs, Codex, FedRamp, or Ads Platform, but not ChatGPT, have no bearing on resolution [1]. Revisions that change an incident's impact classification to or from Partial/Full Outage count only if they are published before the day's status box is finalized or before all incidents starting that day are resolved [1]. Timing rules matter for the resolution date. A day is finalized once the following day's status box is added to the Status Page. The market remains open until the specified day's box is finalized and any incident that began that day has been resolved. If an incident is ongoing, the market stays open until it is marked Resolved and relevant data is released. If that has not happened by the end of the seventh day after the specified date, the market resolves based on the data available at that time [1]. The listed end times for the saved markets are recorded in the contract data and should be read as the provider's listed timing, not as an announced event. The saved event includes two markets with different deadlines, one for outages by October 31, 2026 and one for outages by November 15, 2026. Each has its own listed end time and status [1]. Because the markets cover different windows, they should not be read as a ranking of the same question at different points in time. The saved sample includes all markets the provider listed for this event, but the provider does not claim that this is every possible framing of the question. The primary resolution source is official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].

Historical Context

ChatGPT was originally released on November 30, 2022, and it accelerated the ongoing AI boom, a period marked by rapid investment and public attention toward artificial intelligence [2]. This background explains why the product is widely used, but the supplied sources do not describe its outage history or any specific past incidents.

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