This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETScience

Precipitation in NYC in May?

Name: Precipitation in NYC in May?
End: 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$441.66

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Precipitation in NYC in May?

Vol

$441.66

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $441.66

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $441.66

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in May?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in May?	Poly	36%
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in May?	Poly	34%
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in May?	Poly	24%
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in May?	Poly	15%
Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in May?	Poly	13%
Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in May?	Poly	13%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

36%

Top Probability

$441.66

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for May 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Precipitation in NYC in May?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for May 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $442
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.33)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $423
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $15
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in May?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETScience