Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
PM $309.8K
1
1
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
PM $309.8K
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 26, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, Yes is priced at 5.5% on Polymarket.
Polymarket
- Yes5.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $309.8K
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lee Jae-myung ceases to be the President of South Korea for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lee Jae-myung's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lee Jae-myung and the government of South Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket contract asks whether Lee Jae-myung will cease to be President of South Korea for any period between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET [1]. It resolves "Yes" if that happens and "No" otherwise [1]. The rules also state that an announcement of resignation or removal before the end date resolves the market to "Yes," regardless of when the announced change takes effect [1]. Detention, removal, or other permanent prevention from fulfilling the duties of the office also qualifies [1].
The stated resolution source is "official information from Lee Jae-myung and the government of South Korea," although "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1]. The rules therefore use a broader standard than an official announcement alone.
The provider lists an end time of 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This corresponds to the December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET wording, but the listed close time is a provider field, not a separate event date.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T21:42:54.537Z [1]. It shows a "Yes" price of 0.0725 and a "No" price of 0.9275 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The market status was recorded as active [1].
The sample contains one market from one provider event, with no partial sampling flagged [1]. Because there is only one contract, no cross-platform or cross-market comparison is possible from this evidence.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not establish Lee Jae-myung's current office status beyond what the contract wording describes. It also does not explain why the price is at its recorded level, and it contains no information on trading volume, participant numbers, or recent developments.
The snapshot reflects one point in time. Its prices may have changed after the observation, and the evidence does not show whether the contract has closed or resolved.
References
- Polymarket: Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a single prediction market on Polymarket asking whether Lee Jae-myung will be out as president of South Korea in 2026 [1]. The market is a yes or no contract. It resolves to "Yes" if Lee ceases to be president for any period of time between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, and to "No" otherwise [1]. The price shown in the snapshot reflects the market's trading at the time it was observed, not an executable quote or a verified probability of the outcome. The contract is broader than a resignation question. According to the provider's rules, an announcement of Lee's resignation or removal made before the end date resolves the market to "Yes" immediately, regardless of when that announced resignation or removal takes effect [1]. The rules also state that detention, effective removal from the position, or any other permanent inability to carry out the duties of the office within the market's timeframe would qualify for a "Yes" resolution [1]. The resolution source is official information from Lee and the government of South Korea, though the provider notes that a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z, which corresponds to the December 31, 2026 cutoff in Eastern Time [1]. That date is the contract's closing rule. It is not an announced event date or a scheduled political milestone. The market was recorded as active in the saved provider data [1]. Because it is a single market, the entry does not compare Lee's contract against other officeholders or other outcomes.
Historical Context
Background from the Wikipedia entry describes Lee as a South Korean politician and lawyer who has served as the 14th president of South Korea since 2025 [2]. The same entry lists earlier posts: mayor of Seongnam from 2010 to 2018, governor of Gyeonggi from 2018 to 2021, and member of the National Assembly for Incheon Gyeyang B from 2022 to 2025, during which he was also leader of the Democratic Party of Korea [2]. This history explains who the contract concerns. It does not establish whether Lee currently holds the office.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Lee leaves or is effectively removed from the presidency at any point between market creation and the end of 2026 [1]. Because an announced resignation or removal counts immediately, the contract can resolve before any departure actually takes effect [1]. Because detention or a permanent inability to perform the duties also counts, the contract covers more than a formal resignation [1]. Readers should check the provider's full rules, since the resolution wording is more detailed than this summary.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does an announced resignation count if it takes effect after December 31, 2026?
Yes, according to the provider's rules, an announcement of Lee's resignation or removal before the market's end date resolves the market to "Yes" regardless of when the announced resignation or removal goes into effect [1].
What situations besides resignation could resolve the market to Yes?
The rules say that if Lee is detained, effectively removed from the position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the presidency within the market's timeframe, the market would qualify for a "Yes" resolution [1].
Which sources determine how the market resolves?
The stated resolution source is official information from Lee Jae-myung and the government of South Korea, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
Does the December 31, 2026 end date mean an event is scheduled?
No. The end date is the contract's closing time, which the provider lists as 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z, matching 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026 [1]. It is not an announced event date.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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