Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

When will Canada and the US finalize a trade deal?

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$1.97K

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When will Canada and the US finalize a trade deal?

Vol

$1.97K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.97K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.97K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Jan 1, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	26%
Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	13%
Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Nov 1, 2026?	Kalshi	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

26%

Top Probability

$1.97K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement If Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. An agreement is concluded if either: it is signed or formally executed by authorized officials of both governments, or both governments announce that negotiations have concluded and that the agreed tariff changes are being implemented, or those tariff changes take legal effect in both countrie

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will Canada and the US finalize a trade deal?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement

If Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. An agreement is concluded if either: it is signed or formally executed by authorized officials of both governments, or both governments announce that negotiations have concluded and that the agreed tariff changes are being implemented, or those tariff changes take legal effect in both countrie

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An agreement is concluded if either:

it is signed or formally executed by authorized officials of both governments, or
both governments ann"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $44
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Dec 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Nov 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $641
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

When will Canada and the US finalize a trade deal?

Volume$1.97K

Markets3

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KALSHI

Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Jan 1, 2027?

If Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An agreement is concluded if either: it is signed or formally executed by authorized officials of both governments, or both governments ann

KALSHI

Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Dec 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.0¢No 87.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Dec 1, 2026?

If Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An agreement is concluded if either: it is signed or formally executed by authorized officials of both governments, or both governments ann

KALSHI

Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Nov 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Nov 1, 2026?

If Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An agreement is concluded if either: it is signed or formally executed by authorized officials of both governments, or both governments ann

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When will Canada and the US finalize a trade deal?

When will Canada and the US finalize a trade deal?

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Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Jan 1, 2027?

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Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

When will Canada and the US finalize a trade deal?

Markets (3)

Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Jan 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Jan 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Dec 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Dec 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Nov 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Nov 1, 2026?

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Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Jan 1, 2027?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

When will Canada and the US finalize a trade deal?

Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Jan 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Jan 1, 2027?

Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Dec 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Dec 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Nov 1, 2026?

Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Nov 1, 2026?

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