GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026

Name: Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$25.38K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026

Vol

$25.38K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $25.38K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $25.38K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%?	Poly	64%
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%?	Poly	30%
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.6% and 2.8%?	Poly	2%
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.4% and 2.6%?	Poly	1%
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be less than 2.0?	Poly	1%
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4%?	Poly	0%
Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.2%?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

64%

Top Probability

$25.38K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.ht

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (117 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.ht

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution s"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $25.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $8.4K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be less than 2.0?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.2%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $992
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.4% and 2.6%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.6% and 2.8%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $8.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $9.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 63.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETFinance