
When will the new Senate first confirm a federal judge?
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When will the new Senate first confirm a federal judge?

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Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Before Jan 1, 2028 at 86%.
Kalshi
- Before Jan 1, 202886%
- Before Jul 1, 202750%
- Before Apr 1, 202722%
- Before Mar 1, 202712.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
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Reported volume ยท provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Before Jan 1, 2028 If the Senate's confirmation of a federal judge in the 120th Congress is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency, that A, explicitly states <event claim> occurred, is true, or has been verified, B, based on journalistic investigation, sources, or evidence, and C, presented as factual reporting rather than speculation, rumor, or unverified allegation. X federal judge counts only if the Senate confirms them to one of the following courts: Supreme Court of the United States U.S. Court of Federal Claims U.S. Courts of Appeals U.S. District Courts, including territorial courts, The following do NOT count: X confirmation made before Jan 3, 2027, including in the 2026 lame-duck session X confirmation to the U.S. Court of International Trade, U.S. Tax Court, U.S. Court of Appeals for Veterans Claims, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Armed Forces, U.S. Court of Military Commission Review, or a District of Columbia local court, D.C. Court of Appeals and Superior Court of the District of Columbia, This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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