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Events
GroupKALSHI

When will the new Senate first confirm a federal judge?

When will the new Senate first confirm a federal judge?
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Events

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Markets

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Current odds

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As of Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Before Jan 1, 2028 at 86%.

Kalshi

  1. Before Jan 1, 202886%
  2. Before Jul 1, 202750%
  3. Before Apr 1, 202722%
  4. Before Mar 1, 202712.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 0 contracts

Reported volume ยท provider units

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Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2028 If the Senate's confirmation of a federal judge in the 120th Congress is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency, that A, explicitly states <event claim> occurred, is true, or has been verified, B, based on journalistic investigation, sources, or evidence, and C, presented as factual reporting rather than speculation, rumor, or unverified allegation. X federal judge counts only if the Senate confirms them to one of the following courts: Supreme Court of the United States U.S. Court of Federal Claims U.S. Courts of Appeals U.S. District Courts, including territorial courts, The following do NOT count: X confirmation made before Jan 3, 2027, including in the 2026 lame-duck session X confirmation to the U.S. Court of International Trade, U.S. Tax Court, U.S. Court of Appeals for Veterans Claims, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Armed Forces, U.S. Court of Military Commission Review, or a District of Columbia local court, D.C. Court of Appeals and Superior Court of the District of Columbia, This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketPolitics
New Senate confirms a Trump Cabinet or federal judge nominee by...?

New Senate confirms a Trump Cabinet or federal judge nominee by...?

PM $2.6K
Will the new Senate confirm a Trump Cabinet or federal judge nominee by June 30, 2027?Yes 61.5%
Will the new Senate confirm a Trump Cabinet or federal judge nominee by March 31, 2027?Yes 26%
Will the new Senate confirm a Trump Cabinet or federal judge nominee by January 31, 2027?Yes 12%
3 mktsNext deadline Feb 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Will the Senate confirm James Sullivan as a federal judge?

Will the Senate confirm James Sullivan as a federal judge?

K 0 contracts
Will the Senate confirm James Sullivan to the Western District of Texas before Jan 3, 2027?Yes 85%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 10, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Will the new Senate confirm a Cabinet nominee?

Will the new Senate confirm a Cabinet nominee?

K 0 contracts
Will the United States Senate confirm a Cabinet nominee in the 120th Congress before Jan 1, 2028?Yes 87%
Will the United States Senate confirm a Cabinet nominee in the 120th Congress before Jul 1, 2027?Yes 68%
Will the United States Senate confirm a Cabinet nominee in the 120th Congress before Apr 1, 2027?Yes 42%
+1 moreNext deadline Mar 8, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
New Hampshire Senate margin of victory

New Hampshire Senate margin of victory

K 216.7K contracts
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire be at least 5 percentage points?Yes 99.6%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire be at least 3 percentage points?Yes 99.6%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire be at least 6 percentage points?Yes 99.6%
+19 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
New Jersey Senate General Election: voter turnout

New Jersey Senate General Election: voter turnout

K 5.8K contracts
Will the total vote count for all participants in New Jersey Senate General Election be above 2700000?Yes 56%
Will the total vote count for all participants in New Jersey Senate General Election be above 2300000?Yes 55%
Will the total vote count for all participants in New Jersey Senate General Election be above 2900000?Yes 52.5%
+12 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Alaska Senate election margin of victory

Alaska Senate election margin of victory

K 249.6K contracts
Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%?Yes 65.5%
Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 0% and 3%?Yes 27.5%
Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 6% and 9%?Yes 5.5%
+7 moreNext deadline Jun 2, 2027 UTC

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