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Events
GroupKALSHI

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/26 - 11/1)

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/26 - 11/1)
Vol

K 253 contracts

|
Events

1

|
Markets

7

Kalshi

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is October 31 at 14.5%.

Kalshi

  1. October 3114.5%
  2. October 3014.5%
  3. October 2914.5%
  4. October 2814.5%
  5. October 2714.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 253 contracts

Reported volume · provider units

7

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

About This Event

10/26 - 11/1 If Oct X 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Daily counts will be evaluated from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available. If multiple days tie for the highest number of transit calls, the market for each tied day will resolve to 1/N, where X is the number of tied days.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Related prediction markets

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

KalshiTech
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1)

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1)

K 11.5K contracts
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 3 from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026?Yes 94.5%
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 4 from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026?Yes 78.5%
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 5 from Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026?Yes 70.5%
+5 moreNext deadline Feb 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/19 - 10/25)

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/19 - 10/25)

K 82.4K contracts
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 3 from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026?Yes 97.5%
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 4 from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026?Yes 93.5%
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 5 from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026?Yes 86.5%
+5 moreNext deadline Jan 25, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/19 - 10/25)

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/19 - 10/25)

K 71.5K contracts
Will October 21 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/19 - 10/25)?Yes 44.5%
Will October 23 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/19 - 10/25)?Yes 16.5%
Will October 19 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/19 - 10/25)?Yes 15.5%
+4 moreNext deadline Jan 25, 2027 UTC
PolymarketKalshiPolitics
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

PM $19.60M · K 10.77M contracts

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Kalshi: Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 11.5%Rules differK Yes 8.3%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Kalshi: Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 0.5%Rules differK Yes 0.5%

Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in October?

Kalshi: Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 0.1%Rules differK Yes 0.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

3 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
KalshiTech
Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026)

Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (October 2026)

K 9.8K contracts
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 9 in Oct 2026?Yes 17%
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 10 in Oct 2026?Yes 12.5%
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 12 in Oct 2026?Yes 7%
+4 moreNext deadline Feb 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?

How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?

K 204.6K contracts
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 30 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 19%
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 16%
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 11.5%
+7 moreNext deadline Apr 5, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

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