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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

Next Brazilian Minister of Defense?

Next Brazilian Minister of Defense?
Vol

PM $550.78

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Events

1

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Markets

5

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is José Múcio at 26.5%.

Polymarket

  1. José Múcio26.5%
  2. Aloizio Mercadante20%
  3. Celso Amorim11%
  4. Rui Costa11%
  5. Jaques Wagner5.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $550.78

Reported volume · provider units

5

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Brazilian Minister of Defense (Ministro da Defesa) in the government of the President of Brazil whose term begins on January 5, 2027. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed to that government by the President of Brazil. An individual serving as Minister of Defense at the end of the previous term who is reappointed or retained in that position at the start of the new term will count as assuming office in that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Defense will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Defense” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Defense are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Defense assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketWorld
Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

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Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?Yes 49%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?Yes 12.1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?Yes 4.7%
+16 moreNext deadline Mar 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketWorld
Next Brazilian Minister of Finance?

Next Brazilian Minister of Finance?

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Will Rafael Fonteles be the next Brazilian Minister of Finance?Yes 31.5%
Will Dario Durigan be the next Brazilian Minister of Finance?Yes 31%
Will Geraldo Alckmin be the next Brazilian Minister of Finance?Yes 29%
+7 moreNext deadline Mar 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketWorld
Next Brazilian Minister of Foreign Affairs?

Next Brazilian Minister of Foreign Affairs?

PM $692.69
Will Mauro Vieira be the next Brazilian Minister of Foreign Affairs?Yes 41.5%
Will Fernando Haddad be the next Brazilian Minister of Foreign Affairs?Yes 31.5%
Will Maria Laura da Rocha be the next Brazilian Minister of Foreign Affairs?Yes 17%
+3 moreNext deadline Mar 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketWorld
Next Brazilian Minister of Justice and Public Security?

Next Brazilian Minister of Justice and Public Security?

PM $475.92
Will Wellington César Lima e Silva be the next Brazilian Minister of Justice and Public Security?Yes 41%
Will Camilo Santana be the next Brazilian Minister of Justice and Public Security?Yes 40%
Will Márcio França be the next Brazilian Minister of Justice and Public Security?Yes 38.5%
+3 moreNext deadline Mar 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiWorld
Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?

Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?

K 2.2K contracts
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?Yes 24.5%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?Yes 21.5%
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035?Yes 15.5%
+26 moreNext deadline Jan 8, 2035 UTC
KalshiWorld
Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?

Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?

K 140.1K contracts
Will Gadi Eisenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 36%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 7.1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 5.5%
+9 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2045 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Same-question pairs

0

No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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