Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
PM $3.10M
1
14
Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
PM $3.10M
1
14
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 26, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Dejan Šoškić at 41.4%.
Polymarket
- Dejan Šoškić41.4%
- Ilija Srdanović23.5%
- Radomir Saičić12.8%
- Dejan Bodiroga1.1%
- Aleksandar Vučić0.6%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $3.10M
Reported volume · provider units
14
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Polymarket event asks who will be the next Prime Minister of Serbia. It resolves to "the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET" [1]. The rules require that the individual "be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government" [1]. An interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly does not count [1]. If no such Prime Minister takes office by that deadline, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
The contract wording therefore differs from the listed close time. The saved event shows a "Listed end time" of 2026-10-26T03:59:00.000Z [1], while each individual market's end date field reads 2026-10-25T23:59:00.000Z. Neither is the resolution date. The resolution deadline in the rules is June 30, 2028 [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved data was observed at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T18:24:25.232Z [1]. These prices describe that observation only and may not reflect current trading.
Each named candidate has its own Yes and No contract. The highest saved Yes prices are 0.6955 for Aleksandar Vučić, 0.195 for Ilija Srdanović, and 0.027 for Ivica Dačić. The remaining seven candidates are each at or below 0.022 [1]. The Yes prices in the saved sample sum to about 0.95. The "Other" outcome named in the rules does not appear among the saved markets, so no price for it is available here.
These are quoted snapshots, not executable prices or verified probabilities. The saved data does not include volume or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many people hold each view.
What remains uncertain
The coverage record shows 10 of 10 markets for this event, with no partial sample flagged [1]. The saved sample still does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome. Because "Other" is not among the saved markets, the sample should not be read as the full field.
The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, and it contains no recent news or information about upcoming events. Price differences between contracts or platforms should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity without verifying matching rules, close times, and executable liquidity.
References
- Polymarket: Next Prime Minister of Serbia?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
PredictPedia tracks a Polymarket event titled "Next Prime Minister of Serbia?" in the politics category [1]. The event asks who will be the next individual to officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET [1]. The rules require that the person be elected by the National Assembly and formally sworn in, which results in the official formation of a new government [1]. An interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly does not count toward resolution [1]. If no qualifying Prime Minister takes office by the deadline, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The rules say the market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, resolution relies solely on official information from the Serbian government [1]. The saved event records show two different end timestamps: the provider's listed end time is 2026-10-26T03:59:00Z, while each individual market record lists 2026-10-25T23:59:00Z [1]. Readers should check the provider's current contract page for the governing end time rather than assuming either timestamp. The saved sample contains ten binary markets, one for each named individual, and each has a Yes and a No price [1]. All saved markets for this event are included, so this sample is not partial. The sample does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome. At the observation time, the Yes price for Aleksandar Vučić was 0.6955 and the Yes price for Ilija Srdanović was 0.195. The other eight names had Yes prices of 0.027 or lower [1]. These figures are snapshots of provider prices. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and volume shown by a provider does not measure liquidity or the number of traders.
Historical Context
The Wikipedia article on the 2026 Serbian presidential election states that presidential elections will be held on 25 December 2026, following Vučić's resignation to run for prime minister in the 2026 parliamentary election [2]. A separate Wikipedia article on Ana Brnabić describes her as previously serving as Prime Minister from 2017 to 2024 and as president of the National Assembly since 2024 [3]. These are background details from articles retrieved on 15 October 2026. The saved sources do not establish how the 2026 parliamentary election or the formation of any new government will proceed.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a named individual becomes Prime Minister of Serbia through the formal process the rules describe: election by the National Assembly followed by a formal swearing in and the official formation of a new government [1]. Because interim and caretaker roles do not count unless the person is elected by the Assembly, the contract separates a formal appointment to the office from temporary arrangements [1]. Its prices show how the provider's market currently values each named outcome, but they are snapshots and not verified forecasts [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a caretaker or interim Prime Minister count for this market?
Not unless that person is elected by the National Assembly. The rules state that an interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward resolution [1].
What happens if no new Prime Minister takes office by the deadline?
The market resolves to "Other" if no such Prime Minister officially assumes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET [1].
Is an acting presidency the same as the Prime Minister role?
No. The sources describe Ana Brnabić as acting President of Serbia and as president of the National Assembly, and separately describe her earlier term as Prime Minister from 2017 to 2024 [3]. The contract concerns the office of Prime Minister and the formal process described in its rules [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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