Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Which bloc will win a Knesset majority?

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$610.74

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Which bloc will win a Knesset majority?

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$610.74

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100%

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3 markets tracked

Will neither the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu nor the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

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Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will neither the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu nor the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	78%
Will the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	13%
Will the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Kalshi	12%

AI Analysis

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78%

Top Probability

$610.74

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About This Event

On Oct 27, 2026 If the bloc X has won at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes. X seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either: The time for legal challenges has expired Challenges have been resolved The member has taken their seat Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subse

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which bloc will win a Knesset majority?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Oct 27, 2026

If the bloc X has won at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes. X seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either: The time for legal challenges has expired Challenges have been resolved The member has taken their seat Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subse

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If neither the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu nor the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas has won at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat is "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $611
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will neither the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu nor the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $400
  DATA: [Yes: 77.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $168
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $43
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Which bloc will win a Knesset majority?

Volume$610.74

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KALSHI

Will neither the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu nor the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.5¢No 22.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will neither the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu nor the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

If neither the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu nor the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas has won at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat is

KALSHI

Will the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

If the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas has won at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been

KALSHI

Will the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

If the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu has won at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/yujAam" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Which bloc will win a Knesset majority?"></iframe>

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Which bloc will win a Knesset majority?

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Will neither the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu nor the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Which bloc will win a Knesset majority?

Markets (3)

Will neither the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu nor the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will neither the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu nor the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

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Will neither the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu nor the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which bloc will win a Knesset majority?

Will neither the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu nor the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will neither the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu nor the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will the bloc of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Will the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu win at least 61 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

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