Polymarket
Definition
Polymarket is a crypto-native prediction market platform with USDC settlement and on-chain trade/resolve mechanics across broad topics.
Overview
Polymarket is one of the largest decentralized prediction markets, built on blockchain technology to enable permissionless, transparent forecasting.
Key Features
- Decentralized: Built on Polygon blockchain
- Crypto payments: Trades in USDC stablecoin
- Global access: Available worldwide (with some restrictions)
- Wide coverage: Politics, economics, technology, culture, sports
- High liquidity: Often millions in daily volume
How It Works
Getting Started
- Set up wallet: MetaMask or compatible Web3 wallet
- Get USDC: Purchase or bridge USDC to Polygon
- Connect: Link wallet to polymarket.com
- Trade: Buy/sell outcome tokens on markets
Trading Mechanics
- Order book: Limit and market orders
- AMM: Automated market maker for instant liquidity
- Outcome tokens: On-chain ERC-20 tokens for each outcome
- Gas fees: Small Polygon network fees (fractions of a cent)
Market Categories
Politics
- Elections (US, global)
- Policy outcomes
- Geopolitical events
- Government decisions
Economics
- Fed decisions
- Inflation data
- Economic indicators
- Cryptocurrency prices
Technology
- Product launches
- AI developments
- Platform metrics
- Tech company events
Culture & Entertainment
- Award shows
- Celebrity events
- Pop culture predictions
Resolution
UMA Optimistic Oracle
- Markets resolve via UMA Protocol
- Proposers suggest outcomes
- 2-hour dispute window
- Challenges require stake
- Community governance for disputes
Resolution Timeline
- Event occurs
- Outcome proposed (by anyone)
- 2-hour challenge period
- Finalization (if no disputes)
- Payout to winners
Advantages
Decentralization
- No central authority
- Censorship-resistant
- Transparent on-chain
Accessibility
- Permissionless trading
- Global participation
- 24/7 markets
Liquidity
- High volume on popular markets
- Automated market makers
- Professional market makers
Considerations
Crypto Knowledge Required
- Need crypto wallet
- Understand gas fees
- Manage private keys
- Bridge assets to Polygon
Regulatory Status
- Restricted in some jurisdictions
- Check local laws
- KYC/AML varies by region
Oracle Risk
- Resolution depends on UMA
- Potential for disputes
- Invalid outcomes possible
Fees
- Trading fees: ~2% on trades (varies)
- Gas fees: ~$0.01-0.10 per transaction
- No deposit/withdrawal fees: But bridge fees apply