#Definition
A Series is a recurring set of Events/Markets across periods (e.g., monthly CPI), standardized for discovery on Kalshi.
#What is a Series?
Series organize related markets into a standardized format:
- Recurring: Same question, different time periods
- Standardized: Consistent structure and rules
- Easy tracking: Follow a topic over time
- Predictable: Know when new markets launch
#Examples
#Economic Series
Inflation Series (INF)
- "Will CPI exceed 3% in [Month]?"
- New market each month
- Same threshold (3%)
- Same resolution source (BLS)
Fed Funds Rate Series (FED)
- "Will the Fed raise/cut rates?"
- Each FOMC meeting
- Clear resolution dates
- Official Fed announcements
Jobs Series (JOBS)
- "Will unemployment be above/below X%?"
- Monthly releases
- Bureau of Labor Statistics
- First Friday pattern
#Weather Series
Temperature Series
- "Will NYC high exceed 90°F on [Date]?"
- Daily in summer
- NOAA data
- Location-specific
Precipitation Series
- "Will it rain more than 1 inch in [City] on [Date]?"
- Event-based
- Weather service data
- Regional coverage
#Series Structure
#Ticker Format
SERIES-YYMM-OUTCOME
Example: INFL-24DEC-T3.00
- INFL: Inflation series
- 24DEC: December 2024
- T3.00: Threshold at 3.00%
#Components
- Series code: Short identifier (3-6 letters)
- Date: When event occurs
- Outcome: Specific threshold or condition
- Standard rules: Same resolution criteria
#Benefits
#For Traders
Easy Discovery
- Browse entire series
- See historical patterns
- Track trends over time
Consistent Rules
- Know resolution criteria
- Familiar market structure
- Reduced learning curve
- Trade multiple months
- Build calendar spreads
- Manage rolling exposure
#For Kalshi
Operational Efficiency
- Automated market creation
- Standardized templates
- Batch processing
Regulatory Clarity
- One approval for series
- Consistent compliance
- Easier CFTC coordination
#Trading Series
#Calendar Trading
Compare prices across months:
Example: CPI Series
- December 2024: 35¢
- January 2025: 40¢
- February 2025: 38¢
Insight: Market expects higher probability in January
#Spread Strategies
- Calendar spread: Long Jan, Short Feb
- Volatility play: Trade changing probabilities
- Mean reversion: Bet on pattern return
#Rolling Positions
- Close expiring month
- Enter next month
- Maintain continuous exposure
#Series Types
#Monthly Economic
- CPI, PPI, GDP
- Employment data
- Retail sales
- Consumer confidence
#Meeting-Based
- Fed FOMC decisions
- Central bank meetings
- Policy announcements
#Daily/Weekly
- Weather events
- Sports outcomes
- Short-term predictions
#Market Lifecycle
#Launch Schedule
- New market opens (e.g., 1 month before event)
- Trading begins
- Closes at/before event
- Resolves with official data
- Next month's market opens
#Example Timeline
CPI Series (January 2025)
- Dec 1: Market opens
- Dec 1 - Jan 31: Trading period
- Jan 31: Market closes
- Feb 12: CPI data released
- Feb 12: Market resolves
- Feb 12: Market resolves
- Feb 1: February market already open
#Series Timeline Visual
#Position Limits
#Per-Series Limits
Kalshi may set:
- Maximum contracts across all months
- Individual market limits
- Aggregate series exposure caps
Example:
- Per market: 25,000 contracts
- Per series: 100,000 contracts
- Prevents concentration risk
#Analyzing Series
#Historical Performance
- Review past market prices
- Compare to actual outcomes
- Assess accuracy trends
- Identify biases
#Correlation
- How months relate
- Leading indicators
- Seasonal patterns
#Value Discovery
- Spot mispricings
- Cross-month arbitrage
- Trend identification
#Example: Rolling Series
Inflation (CPI) Markets are often traded as a series.
- Series: "US CPI Month-over-Month"
- Contracts:
- "Jan CPI > 0.3%" (Expires Feb)
- "Feb CPI > 0.3%" (Expires Mar)
- "Mar CPI > 0.3%" (Expires Apr)
Traders can "roll" their position: as one contract expires, they move their capital into the next month's contract to maintain exposure to the inflation theme.