Unopened

#Market State Progression

Unopened → Open → Closed → Settled/Resolved

#Definition

Unopened is the initial state of a prediction market after creation but before trading begins. The market is visible, rules are published, but no orders can be placed yet. This pre-trading phase allows users to review the market and prepare strategies before trading opens.

#Characteristics

Status: Created, visible, but inactive

What you see:

• 🔵 Market listing (often with "Coming Soon" badge)
• Market question and description
• Resolution criteria
• Scheduled opening time
• Countdown to opening (if applicable)

What you can do: ✅ View market details ✅ Read rules and resolution criteria ✅ Research the underlying event ✅ Set alerts for opening ✅ Share market with others ✅ Discuss in comments ✅ Plan trading strategy

What you cannot do: ❌ Place buy orders ❌ Place sell orders ❌ Add liquidity ❌ Trade in any way ❌ See price discovery (no trading yet)

#Why Unopened State Exists

#1. Rule Review Period

Gives traders time to:

• Read resolution criteria carefully
• Identify edge cases or ambiguities
• Understand what they're betting on
• Avoid entering positions blindly

#2. Marketing and Awareness

Platforms can:

• Promote upcoming markets
• Build anticipation
• Allow community to prepare
• Generate interest before launch

#3. Scheduled Openings

Ensures fair access:

• Everyone sees market at same time
• No insider early access
• Level playing field for all traders
• Prevents front-running market creation

#4. Platform Preparation

Allows platform to:

• Finalize liquidity provision
• Set up monitoring systems
• Brief market makers
• Prepare customer support

#Duration of Unopened State

#Short Unopened Period

Minutes to hours:

Created: 9:00 AM
Opens: 10:00 AM
Unopened: 1 hour

Common for:

• Breaking news markets
• Same-day event markets
• Quick-turnaround topics
• Platform wants fast liquidity

#Standard Unopened Period

Days to weeks:

Created: Nov 1
Opens: Nov 15
Unopened: 2 weeks

Common for:

• Scheduled events (elections, earnings, Fed meetings)
• Gives users time to research
• Builds anticipation
• Allows thorough rule review

#Long Unopened Period

Weeks to months:

Created: January 2025
Opens: October 2025
Unopened: 9 months

Common for:

• Major annual events (next election)
• Platform announces market well in advance
• Very long-term forecasting markets
• Platform building event calendar

#Instant Opening

Zero unopened period:

Created: 2:00 PM
Opens: 2:00 PM (immediately)
Unopened: 0 seconds

Common for:

• User-created markets (Manifold, some Polymarket)
• Breaking news (urgent topics)
• Platform wants immediate trading
• No pre-announcement needed

#Unopened Market Examples

#Political Event

Market: "Will Biden run for reelection in 2024?"
Created: January 2023
Opens: February 2023
Unopened period: 4 weeks

Reason: Major political question, give users time to research

#Economic Data

Market: "Will December CPI exceed 3.5%?"
Created: December 1
Opens: December 8 (week before release)
Unopened period: 7 days

Reason: Opens after previous month's data available

#Sports

Market: "Will Lakers win championship?"
Created: October 1 (season start)
Opens: October 15 (after preseason)
Unopened period: 2 weeks

Reason: Let users see preseason performance first

#Breaking News

Market: "Will Supreme Court rule by June 30?"
Created: May 15 (case argued)
Opens: May 15 (immediately)
Unopened period: 0

Reason: Urgent, time-sensitive question

#Transition to Open

#Automatic Opening

Most markets open automatically:

Scheduled time: 9:00:00 AM UTC
System: Checks clock
At 9:00:00: State changes to "Open"
Traders: Can now place orders

Advantages:

• Precise timing
• Fair for all users
• No human error
• Works 24/7

#Manual Opening

Some platforms open manually:

Staff: Reviews market
Staff: Ensures liquidity ready
Staff: Clicks "Open Market" button
Market: State changes to "Open"

When used:

• High-stakes markets
• Complex resolution criteria
• Want final review before trading
• Prefer human oversight

#Event-Triggered Opening

Rare, but possible:

Condition: "Opens when candidate announces"
Event: Announcement made
System: Detects announcement
Market: Automatically opens

Use cases:

• Conditional markets
• Announcement-dependent timing
• Cannot predict exact open time

#Unopened vs. Open

Key difference:

#Platform-Specific Behavior

#Kalshi

• Markets often unopened for days/weeks
• Announced in advance with opening schedule
• All markets reviewed before opening
• Opens at scheduled time automatically
• Professional, structured approach

#Polymarket

• Some markets open immediately upon creation
• Others have review period (hours to days)
• Depends on market type and creator
• Can pre-seed liquidity during unopened state
• More flexible approach

#Manifold Markets

• Usually open immediately (no unopened period)
• Creator decides when to open
• Play money = less formal
• Can be unopened if creator chooses delay
• Very permissive

#Strategies During Unopened Period

#Research

What to investigate:

• Historical similar events
• Base rates and frequencies
• Expert opinions and forecasts
• Potential information sources
• Market rule ambiguities

Example:

Unopened market: "Will Fed raise rates in December?"

Research during unopened:
→ Check Fed member speeches
→ Review CME FedWatch probabilities
→ Analyze inflation data trends
→ Read economist forecasts
→ Study past Fed patterns
→ Prepare trading plan

Result: Ready to trade intelligently when opens

#Preparation

Actions to take:

• Fund your account (if needed)
• Set up price alerts
• Prepare limit orders (can't place yet, but plan them)
• Decide position size
• Identify entry price targets
• Plan risk management

#Community Engagement

During unopened:

• Discuss in market comments
• Debate resolution criteria
• Share research
• Build consensus on probabilities
• Identify potential issues with rules

Value:

• Crowdsource research
• Catch rule problems early
• Build liquidity when opens (others interested)
• Network with informed traders

#Unopened Market Indicators

Visual cues:

• 🔵 Blue or gray status badge
• "Opens in X days/hours" countdown
• Grayed-out trade buttons
• "Coming Soon" label
• Clock/calendar icon
• Opening time prominently displayed

Example UI:

┌─────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 🔵 UNOPENED - Opens in 2 days       │
│                                     │
│ Will Bitcoin reach $100k in 2025?  │
│                                     │
│ Opens: Nov 15, 2024 12:00 UTC     │
│                                     │
│ [Set Alert] [View Details]         │
│ [Trade] ← Disabled (grayed out)   │
└─────────────────────────────────────┘

#Why Some Markets Skip Unopened

Instant opening when:

• Breaking news (need immediate price discovery)
• User-created markets (creator wants instant trading)
• Play-money platforms (less formal)
• Event already in progress (late market creation)
• Platform prioritizes speed over preparation

Trade-off:

• ✅ Faster liquidity
• ✅ Immediate trading opportunity
• ❌ Less trader preparation
• ❌ Potential for rule issues
• ❌ May favor first traders (information advantage)

#Common Misconceptions

#"Unopened means private"

❌ Wrong: Unopened markets are typically public and visible ✅ Right: Anyone can see them, just can't trade yet

#"Can place orders that execute when opens"

❌ Wrong: Cannot place any orders during unopened ✅ Right: Must wait until opens, then place orders

#"Price shown is opening price"

❌ Wrong: No price exists yet (no trades) ✅ Right: Price discovery begins when market opens

#The Opening Moment

What happens at opening:

11:59:59 AM: UNOPENED (no trading)
12:00:00 PM: OPEN (trading enabled)
12:00:01 PM: First orders placed
12:00:05 PM: First trade executes
12:00:10 PM: Price discovery underway

Common patterns:

• Rush of orders in first minutes
• Initial price volatility
• Price discovers fair value
• Settles into normal trading rhythm

Opening price:

• Often starts at 50¢ (50/50 uncertainty)
• Or platform sets initial price based on prediction
• Quickly adjusts based on first trades
• May gap from expected if strong early demand

#Best Practices

#For Traders

✅ Use unopened period productively: Research, don't just wait ✅ Review rules carefully: Understand what you'll be betting on ✅ Set alerts: Don't miss the opening ✅ Prepare your strategy: Know your plan before trading starts ✅ Check your account: Ensure funds ready to trade

#For Platforms

✅ Clear communication: Display opening time prominently ✅ Reasonable duration: Not too long (lose interest) or too short (no prep) ✅ Notifications: Alert interested users when opening ✅ Final review: Catch any rule issues before opening ✅ Monitor opening: Ensure smooth transition to trading

#Unopened State Summary

Unopened is the preparation phase - the market exists, but trading hasn't started yet. Smart traders use this time to research, strategize, and prepare for profitable trading when the market opens.

Key takeaway: Unopened ≠ unavailable; it's visible and useful, just not tradeable yet. The opening represents the transition from preparation to action.