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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by...?

No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by...?
Vol

PM $28.7K

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Events

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Markets

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Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31 at 2.9%.

Polymarket

  1. December 312.9%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $28.7K

Reported volume · provider units

1

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez or the sitting Government of Spain is voted upon in the Congress of Deputies of Spain by June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “motion of no-confidence” refers to a formal motion of censure under Spain’s constitutional procedures, including a candidate to replace Sanchez as Prime Minister. Informal calls for Sánchez to resign, requests for a confidence vote, parliamentary criticism, or other non-binding political statements will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketPolitics
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

PM $883.1K
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 31, 2027?Yes 62%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 15, 2027?Yes 44.5%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Yes 14%
3 mktsNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
When will the Knesset approve a new government?

When will the Knesset approve a new government?

K 1.7K contracts
Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Feb 3, 2027?Yes 73.5%
Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Jan 20, 2027?Yes 60.5%
Will Israel agree to or announce a Knesset vote of confidence in a new government before Dec 23, 2026?Yes 22%
3 mktsNext deadline Dec 30, 2026 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030?

Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030?

K 24.7K contracts
Will France vote to leave the EU before 2030?Yes 4.9%
Will Italy vote to leave the EU before 2030?Yes 4.5%
Will Hungary vote to leave the EU before 2030?Yes 4.3%
+3 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2030 UTC
KalshiElections
Will PP and Vox win 50% of the vote in Spain's election?

Will PP and Vox win 50% of the vote in Spain's election?

K 15.2K contracts
Will the People's Party and Vox combined receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes 49.5%
1 mktNext deadline Nov 29, 2027 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Vote of confidence in Knesset by December 31?

Vote of confidence in Knesset by December 31?

PM $5.3K
Vote of confidence in Knesset by December 31?Yes 43%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31?

Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31?

PM $2.7K
Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31?Yes 48%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

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