Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31?

Name: Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.68K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31?

Vol

$2.68K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.68K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.68K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31?	Poly	55%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

55%

Top Probability

$2.68K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A vote will qualify only if it passes and the new government is constituted. A vote that is held but fails will not qualify. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify. The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker gove

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (81 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A vote will qualify only if it passes and the new government is constituted.

A vote that is held but fails will not qualify. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.

The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker gove

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A vote will qualify only if it passes and the new gove"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $324
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 8.28)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 55.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics