GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

Name: US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
End: 2026-10-29T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$23.95K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

Vol

$23.95K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $23.95K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $23.95K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	Poly	32%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Poly	26%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?	Poly	25%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?	Poly	12%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?	Poly	6%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?	Poly	6%
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than 0.5%?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

32%

Top Probability

$23.95K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance est

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 29, 2026 (55 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance est

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be m"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $23.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $8.2K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.92)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than 0.5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $821
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $485
  DATA: [Yes: 5.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $565
  DATA: [Yes: 6.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $663
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $16.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy