Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

German presidential election winner?

Total Volume

$25.00

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German presidential election winner?

Vol

$25.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $25.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $25.00

100%

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9 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will Ilse Aigner win the 2027 German presidential election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Ilse Aigner win the 2027 German presidential election?	Kalshi	19%
Will Monika Grütters win the 2027 German presidential election?	Kalshi	14%
Will Udo Di Fabio win the 2027 German presidential election?	Kalshi	7%
Will Karin Prien win the 2027 German presidential election?	Kalshi	5%
Will Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer win the 2027 German presidential election?	Kalshi	5%
Will Julia Klöckner win the 2027 German presidential election?	Kalshi	4%
Will Hape Kerkeling win the 2027 German presidential election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Boris Rhein win the 2027 German presidential election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Gabriele Krone-Schmalz win the 2027 German presidential election?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

19%

Top Probability

$25.00

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

in 2027 If X wins the 2027 German presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. The Federal President of Germany is chosen by the Federal Convention, Bundesversammlung, made up of the Bundestag and an equal number of state delegates, rather than by direct popular vote. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** German presidential election winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in 2027

If X wins the 2027 German presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. The Federal President of Germany is chosen by the Federal Convention, Bundesversammlung, made up of the Bundestag and an equal number of state delegates, rather than by direct popular vote. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the election winner is officially declared or certified.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Udo Di Fabio wins the 2027 German presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Federal President of Germany is chosen by the Federal Convention (Bundesversammlung), made up of the Bundestag and an equal number of state delegates, rather than by direct popular vote."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $25
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Udo Di Fabio win the 2027 German presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Monika Grütters win the 2027 German presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Karin Prien win the 2027 German presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Julia Klöckner win the 2027 German presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Ilse Aigner win the 2027 German presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 30, 2028): Vol $25
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Hape Kerkeling win the 2027 German presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Gabriele Krone-Schmalz win the 2027 German presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Boris Rhein win the 2027 German presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer win the 2027 German presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 30, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIElections

German presidential election winner?

Volume$25.00

Markets9

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KALSHI

Will Ilse Aigner win the 2027 German presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 19.0¢No 81.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Ilse Aigner win the 2027 German presidential election?

If Ilse Aigner wins the 2027 German presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Federal President of Germany is chosen by the Federal Convention (Bundesversammlung), made up of the Bundestag and an equal number of state delegates, rather than by direct popular vote.

KALSHI

Will Monika Grütters win the 2027 German presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.0¢No 86.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Monika Grütters win the 2027 German presidential election?

If Monika Grütters wins the 2027 German presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Federal President of Germany is chosen by the Federal Convention (Bundesversammlung), made up of the Bundestag and an equal number of state delegates, rather than by direct popular vo

KALSHI

Will Udo Di Fabio win the 2027 German presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.0¢No 93.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Udo Di Fabio win the 2027 German presidential election?

If Udo Di Fabio wins the 2027 German presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Federal President of Germany is chosen by the Federal Convention (Bundesversammlung), made up of the Bundestag and an equal number of state delegates, rather than by direct popular vote.

KALSHI

Will Karin Prien win the 2027 German presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.0¢No 95.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Karin Prien win the 2027 German presidential election?

If Karin Prien wins the 2027 German presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Federal President of Germany is chosen by the Federal Convention (Bundesversammlung), made up of the Bundestag and an equal number of state delegates, rather than by direct popular vote.

KALSHI

Will Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer win the 2027 German presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer win the 2027 German presidential election?

If Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer wins the 2027 German presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Federal President of Germany is chosen by the Federal Convention (Bundesversammlung), made up of the Bundestag and an equal number of state delegates, rather than by direct

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/1B-JpI" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="German presidential election winner?"></iframe>

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German presidential election winner?

German presidential election winner?

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Will Ilse Aigner win the 2027 German presidential election?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

German presidential election winner?

Markets (9)

Will Ilse Aigner win the 2027 German presidential election?

Will Ilse Aigner win the 2027 German presidential election?

Will Monika Grütters win the 2027 German presidential election?

Will Monika Grütters win the 2027 German presidential election?

Will Udo Di Fabio win the 2027 German presidential election?

Will Udo Di Fabio win the 2027 German presidential election?

Will Karin Prien win the 2027 German presidential election?

Will Karin Prien win the 2027 German presidential election?

Will Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer win the 2027 German presidential election?

Will Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer win the 2027 German presidential election?

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Will Ilse Aigner win the 2027 German presidential election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

German presidential election winner?

Will Ilse Aigner win the 2027 German presidential election?

Will Ilse Aigner win the 2027 German presidential election?

Will Monika Grütters win the 2027 German presidential election?

Will Monika Grütters win the 2027 German presidential election?

Will Udo Di Fabio win the 2027 German presidential election?

Will Udo Di Fabio win the 2027 German presidential election?

Will Karin Prien win the 2027 German presidential election?

Will Karin Prien win the 2027 German presidential election?

Will Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer win the 2027 German presidential election?

Will Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer win the 2027 German presidential election?

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