This PredictPedia entry covers a Kalshi event titled "What will Trump say this week?" The event belongs to the Mentions category and asks whether President Donald Trump will say a specific word or phrase within a set window. Each market in the event is a separate yes or no contract on one word or phrase. According to the provider's rules, a contract resolves to Yes if the word or phrase is stated by Donald Trump after November 2, 2026 at 12:00am ET and before November 9, 2026 at 12:00am ET [1]. The rules specify that the statement must come from public statements, direct quotes published by source agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts, including Twitter and Truth Social [1]. The rules set several specific conditions. The exact word or phrase must be used, but a plural or possessive form also counts, and grammatical or tense inflections are accepted [1]. Where a market lists slashed alternatives, such as a pair of related terms, either term satisfies the criterion [1]. Official acts such as executive orders or signed bills do not count toward payout [1]. The rules also state that the market will close and expire early if the specified word or phrase is stated by President Trump [1]. The provider record for the event shows an active status, and the saved market data lists an end timestamp of 2026-11-09 15:00 UTC, which differs from the 12:00am ET time in the rule text. Users should read the provider's current rules for the precise closing and resolution mechanics rather than relying on either time alone [1]. The prices in this entry are snapshots taken from the provider data at the observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The saved sample is partial. For this event, 12 of 32 markets were included, selected by highest finite Yes price and then volume, so the sample does not show the full field and no conclusion can be drawn about the excluded words. At the observation time, several included words, such as "Cuba / Cuban", "Moon", and "Diesel", showed Yes prices of 0.995, while others, such as "GDP" and "Ceasefire", showed Yes prices of 0.01. Trading volume on these contracts is not a measure of liquidity or of how many people traded.

Historical Context

The supplied Wikipedia article on Donald Trump's second presidency says he lost re-election to Democratic nominee Joe Biden in 2020 and won against Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in 2024, and that he is the second former U.S. president to return to office [3]. This background explains why he is the subject of the contract, but the source does not describe the history of mention markets, so no further market history is supplied.

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