Market snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsPolitics

Will Pete Hegseth be impeached?

Reported volume

PM $181.0K · K 9.0K contracts

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Will Pete Hegseth be impeached?

Vol

PM $181.0K · K 9.0K contracts

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Polymarket vs Kalshi

Snapshot from Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC

As of Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, June 30, 2027 is priced at 67.5% on Polymarket and 63.5% on Kalshi.

Outcome (Yes price)	Polymarket	Kalshi	Gap
June 30, 2027Same question, fine print differs	67.5%	63.5%	4.0 pts
March 31, 2027Same question, fine print differs	62%	57.5%	4.5 pts
December 31, 2026Same question, fine print differs	14%	10%	4.0 pts

Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

Price ChartContract price history

3 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Pete Hegseth be impeached?

No data available

Include related or unreviewed contracts

No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with usable prices. You can inspect related contracts, but their prices do not measure the same outcome.

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Saved matching review

Same question, fine print differs: 3 pairs

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

Review notes

Saved notes may describe earlier contract terms. Use the pair status above and current provider rules.

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 3 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Will Pete Hegseth be impeached?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z, 2027-04-08T14:00:00.000Z, 2027-07-08T14:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Pete Hegseth impeached by...?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z, 2027-04-01T03:59:00.000Z, 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $181.0K · K 9.0K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC

About This Event

Before Jul 1, 2027 If Pete Hegseth is formally impeached before X 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Pete Hegseth is impeached when the U.S. House of Representatives adopts at least one article of impeachment against him; a Senate trial or conviction is not required. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: Will Pete Hegseth be impeached?
Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $181.0K · K 9.0K contracts
Coverage: 6 of 6 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will Pete Hegseth be impeached before Apr 1, 2027?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXHEGSETHIMPEACH-27JUL01-27APR01; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhegsethimpeach-27jul01
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Apr 8, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 2.9K contracts
Outcome Yes: 57.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 42.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Pete Hegseth is formally impeached before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Pete Hegseth is impeached when the U.S. House of Representatives adopts at least one article of impeachment against him; a Senate trial or conviction is not required. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Pete Hegseth impeached by March 31, 2027?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5608146; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/pete-hegseth-impeached-by-march-31-2027
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Apr 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $3.7K
Outcome Yes: 62.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 38.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Contract: Will Pete Hegseth be impeached before Jul 1, 2027?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXHEGSETHIMPEACH-27JUL01-27JUL01; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhegsethimpeach-27jul01
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Jul 8, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 5.4K contracts
Outcome Yes: 63.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 36.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Pete Hegseth is formally impeached before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Pete Hegseth is impeached when the U.S. House of Representatives adopts at least one article of impeachment against him; a Senate trial or conviction is not required. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30, 2027?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5608145; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/pete-hegseth-impeached-by-june-30-2027
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $3.5K
Outcome Yes: 67.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 32.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Contract: Will Pete Hegseth be impeached before Jan 1, 2027?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXHEGSETHIMPEACH-27JUL01-27JAN01; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhegsethimpeach-27jul01
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Jan 8, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 732.28 contracts
Outcome Yes: 10.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 90.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If Pete Hegseth is formally impeached before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Pete Hegseth is impeached when the U.S. House of Representatives adopts at least one article of impeachment against him; a Senate trial or conviction is not required. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Contract: Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-2724048; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/pete-hegseth-impeached-by-december-31-2026-20260628214100529
Observed: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $3.8K
Outcome Yes: 14.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 86.1%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Saved cross-platform review:
polymarket-5608146 / kalshi-KXHEGSETHIMPEACH-27JUL01-27APR01: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Pete Hegseth be impeached before Apr 1, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-04-08T14:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Pete Hegseth impeached by March 31, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-04-01T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 30, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 3 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Will Pete Hegseth be impeached?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z, 2027-04-08T14:00:00.000Z, 2027-07-08T14:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Pete Hegseth impeached by...?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z, 2027-04-01T03:59:00.000Z, 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-5608145 / kalshi-KXHEGSETHIMPEACH-27JUL01-27JUL01: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Pete Hegseth be impeached before Jul 1, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-07-08T14:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 30, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 3 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Will Pete Hegseth be impeached?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z, 2027-04-08T14:00:00.000Z, 2027-07-08T14:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Pete Hegseth impeached by...?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z, 2027-04-01T03:59:00.000Z, 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-2724048 / kalshi-KXHEGSETHIMPEACH-27JUL01-27JAN01: Same question, fine print differs. The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Pete Hegseth be impeached before Jan 1, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 30, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 3 same question with differing fine print, 0 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "Will Pete Hegseth be impeached?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z, 2027-04-08T14:00:00.000Z, 2027-07-08T14:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Pete Hegseth impeached by...?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z, 2027-04-01T03:59:00.000Z, 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Will Pete Hegseth be impeached?

Volume$8.99K

Markets3

POLYMARKETPolitics

Pete Hegseth impeached by...?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volume$181.05K

Markets3

3 of 3

Sort:

Will Pete Hegseth be impeached before Jul 1, 2027?

Same question, fine print differs

The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Pete Hegseth be impeached before Jul 1, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-07-08T14:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Fri, 30 Oct 2026 00:19:51 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will Pete Hegseth be impeached before Jul 1, 2027?

Yes: 63.5¢
No: 36.5¢

polymarket

Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30, 2027?

Yes: 67.5¢
No: 32.5¢

Will Pete Hegseth be impeached before Apr 1, 2027?

Same question, fine print differs

The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Pete Hegseth be impeached before Apr 1, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-04-08T14:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Pete Hegseth impeached by March 31, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-04-01T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Fri, 30 Oct 2026 00:19:51 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will Pete Hegseth be impeached before Apr 1, 2027?

Yes: 57.5¢
No: 42.5¢

polymarket

Pete Hegseth impeached by March 31, 2027?

Yes: 62.0¢
No: 38.0¢

Will Pete Hegseth be impeached before Jan 1, 2027?

Same question, fine print differs

The automated review found that both contracts ask the same question, but their fine print differs, so they may not settle identically. Kalshi: "Will Pete Hegseth be impeached before Jan 1, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Reviewed: Fri, 30 Oct 2026 00:19:51 GMT

Review notes

This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

kalshi

Will Pete Hegseth be impeached before Jan 1, 2027?

Yes: 10.0¢
No: 90.0¢

polymarket

Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?

Yes: 14.0¢
No: 86.1¢

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketPolitics

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Kalshi: Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Feb 1, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 32.5%Rules differK Yes 49.5%

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Kalshi: Will Pete Hegseth announce their departure as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 32.5%Rules differK Yes 42%

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?

Kalshi: Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 23%Rules differK Yes 24%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

5 saved comparisonsNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC

KalshiPolitics

Will the House vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth?

K 15.3K contracts

Will the House vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth? (Before Jan 1, 2027)Yes 68.5%

Will the House vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth? (Before Nov 21, 2026)Yes 61.5%

Will the House vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth? (Before Nov 14, 2026)Yes 41.5%

3 mktsNext deadline Nov 21, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiPolitics

Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?

PM $99.24M · K 5.97M contracts

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Kalshi: Will Nicolás Maduro be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 83.7%Rules differK Yes 84%

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Kalshi: Will Delcy Rodríguez be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 13.5%Rules differK Yes 17%

Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Kalshi: Will María Corina Machado be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 0.5%Rules differK Yes 2.8%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

15 saved comparisonsNext deadline Dec 31, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiPolitics

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

PM $1.48M · K 4.74M contracts

Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Kalshi: Will Susie WIles leaves Chief of Staff in before 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 34.5%Rules differK Yes 44%

Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Kalshi: Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 34%Rules differK Yes 34.5%

Will Tom Homan leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Kalshi: Will Tom Homan leaves White House Border Czar in before 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 24%Rules differK Yes 15%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

12 saved comparisonsNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC

No related news found

Discussion

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Next Market Deadline

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Jan 01, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

Same-question pairs

Largest saved gap: 4.5 percentage points.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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