Nicotine product point of sale spend array index in November 2026
K 90.8K contracts
1
11
K 90.8K contracts
1
11
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 13, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 120 at 98.5%.
Kalshi
- Above 12098.5%
- Above 11098.5%
- Above 11597.5%
- Above 12596.5%
- Above 13090%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 90.8K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 13, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
This analysis was written from an earlier market snapshot, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract asks whether the Carbon Arc Nicotine Products Array for November 2026 will be above a stated threshold. The rules say the market "resolves to Yes" if the index is "above X" [1]. The array is "the equally weighted arithmetic mean of its constituent year-over-year indices," with members listed at launch as "Zyn, Velo, on!, Rogue, each weighted 1/4" [1]. Each constituent is 100 when convenience-store point-of-sale spend matches the same month a year earlier, so a level of 120 would mean average year-over-year growth of 20% [1].
Timing differs from the listed end date. The rules say the value is "recorded by Kalshi at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 2nd calendar day after the end of that month" [1]. The market data lists an end date of Dec 10, 2026, 6:30 AM UTC, but the source says the listed end time was "not supplied" [1]. Treat the recording rule as the resolution mechanism, and do not treat the listed timestamp as a verified event date. The rules also state that the market "will close and expire early if the economic data is released" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The snapshot was observed at Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC and retrieved at Nov 12, 2026, 6:22 AM UTC [1]. It describes prices at that time only. All 11 saved Kalshi markets for this event are included, so this is not a partial sample of the event, although the source notes that this does not establish that every possible outcome is listed [1].
Yes prices fall as the threshold rises. Thresholds of 110, 115, 120, and 125 show Yes at 0.965 to 0.975. The 130 threshold shows 0.935. The 135 threshold is near even, at Yes 0.48 and No 0.52. The 140 threshold shows Yes at 0.16, 145 at 0.045, and 150 and 160 at 0.015. The 155 threshold shows 0.025, slightly higher than 150 and 160. Small differences like this may reflect quoting noise, and the data does not explain them.
Prices are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The data includes no volume or liquidity figures, so it does not indicate depth or how many participants are involved.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not say what the November 2026 array level will be, what has moved the constituents, or whether the launch membership still applies. It also gives no current constituent data. Since each threshold is a separate contract, the prices should not be combined or compared against other platforms, and differences between contracts should not be read as an arbitrage signal. Kalshi states it is "not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying companies" [1].
References
- Kalshi: Nicotine product point of sale spend array index in November 2026. Provider data observed Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 12, 2026 UTCThis article was written from an earlier market snapshot and may be out of date. Use the dated market data and provider rules above for current information.
Overview
This contract is a Kalshi event that asks whether the Carbon Arc Nicotine Products Array will be above a stated level for November 2026. The market resolves to Yes if the array value for the full month is above the threshold in each specific contract [1]. The array is an equally weighted arithmetic mean of year-over-year indices for four constituents: Zyn, Velo, on!, and Rogue, each weighted one quarter at listing [1]. Each constituent index equals 100 when its measured convenience-store point-of-sale spend matches the same month of the previous year. An array level of 103 means the constituents' average year-over-year growth is 3%, and 97 means their average decline is 3% [1]. The underlying metric is convenience-store point-of-sale spend [1]. The resolution value is the full-month array level recorded by Kalshi at 11:59 p.m. ET on the second calendar day after the month ends. For November 2026, that recording point is December 2, 2026 [1]. The rules state that later corrections or revisions will not affect the recorded value [1]. The rules also say the market will close and expire early if the economic data is released [1]. The contract rules name a December 10, 2026 end date in the saved market records, but the supplied evidence does not establish that date as an announced event or as the date of resolution. The saved listing does not supply an end time for the event [1]. The event is a Kalshi listing and Kalshi states that it is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying companies [1]. The reference level is published by Carbon Arc [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single month's year-over-year change in convenience-store point-of-sale spend for four nicotine product brands, expressed as an index centered on 100 [1]. Because the array averages the constituents' indices, a level above 100 reflects average growth across the four members and a level below 100 reflects average decline [1]. The contract rules define the threshold as a specific array level, so each listed threshold is a separate yes or no question about the recorded November value [1]. The market snapshot is useful for seeing how the listed thresholds were priced at the observation time. In the saved sample of 11 thresholds from 110 to 160, the Yes prices for levels up to 130 were high, the Yes price for above 135 was 0.405, the Yes price for above 140 was 0.20, and the Yes price for above 145 was 0.05 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the sample includes all saved markets for this event without establishing that every possible outcome is listed [1]. Trading volume is not included in this description and should not be read as a measure of liquidity or trader count.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-10 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What value determines whether a contract resolves to Yes?
A contract resolves to Yes if the Carbon Arc Nicotine Products Array value for the full month of November 2026 is above the threshold named in that contract [1].
When is the November value recorded?
The value is recorded by Kalshi at 11:59 p.m. ET on the second calendar day after the end of the month, which for November 2026 is December 2, 2026 [1]. Later corrections or revisions will not affect the recorded value [1].
What does an array level of 97 mean?
An array level of 97 means the constituents' average year-over-year decline is 3% [1].
Which brands make up the array?
At listing, the array members are Zyn, Velo, on!, and Rogue, each weighted one quarter [1].
Is Kalshi affiliated with the brands in the array?
Kalshi states that it is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying companies [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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