Soda point of sale spend array index in November 2026
K 55.2K contracts
1
11
K 55.2K contracts
1
11
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 13, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 92 at 98.5%.
Kalshi
- Above 9298.5%
- Above 9098.5%
- Above 8897.5%
- Above 8697.5%
- Above 8497.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 55.2K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 13, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Snapshot observed Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks whether the Carbon Arc Soda point of sale spend array index for November 2026 will be above a stated threshold [1]. The underlying metric is convenience-store point-of-sale spend. The array is the equally weighted arithmetic mean of year-over-year indices for Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Dr. Pepper, and Sprite, each weighted 1/5 at listing [1]. A level of 100 means no change from the same month a year earlier, so 103 means average growth of 3% and 97 means average decline of 3% [1].
Resolution uses the value Kalshi records at 11:59 p.m. ET on the second calendar day after the month ends, and later corrections do not change it [1]. For November, that is December 2, 2026 [1]. The event data lists an end time of Dec 10, 2026, 6:30 AM UTC, which differs from the recording rule, and the source states its listed end time is "not supplied" [1]. The rules also say the market will close and expire early if the economic data is released [1]. No release date appears in the evidence, so this snapshot cannot say when that would happen.
Reading the snapshot
The snapshot was observed at 06:00 UTC on November 13, 2026, and retrieved at 06:52 UTC the same day [1]. These are recorded prices from that observation. They are not current quotes, executable prices, or verified probabilities.
All 11 markets in the saved event are included, with thresholds from 84 through 104 [1]. Yes prices generally fall as thresholds rise. The listed Yes prices are 0.985 for above 92, 0.895 for above 96, 0.525 for above 100, 0.085 for above 102, and 0.025 for above 104 [1]. The No prices are listed as complements in the same data [1]. Compare thresholds only within this single event. Do not average these prices with markets from other platforms or other events, since their wording, measurement rules, and close times may differ.
What remains uncertain
This sample covers only the saved provider event. The source notes that providers may not list every possible real-world outcome [1]. A threshold that is absent from the sample should not be assumed to be priced lower.
The evidence does not include trading volume, trader counts, or an explanation for why prices sit where they do. A low or high price does not show liquidity or agreement among participants. The array value for November 2026 is also not in the evidence, so this snapshot does not indicate how the index will be recorded.
References
- Kalshi: Soda point of sale spend array index in November 2026. Provider data observed Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 13, 2026 UTCThis article was written from an earlier market snapshot and may be out of date. Use the dated market data and provider rules above for current information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry explains a Kalshi event titled "Soda point of sale spend array index in November 2026." The contract is tied to a numerical index rather than a single yes or no event. Its rules say a market resolves to Yes if the November 2026 value of the Carbon Arc Soda Brands Array is above a stated threshold X [1]. The event's saved markets use several thresholds, each asking whether the same November value will exceed a different level [1]. The underlying metric is convenience-store point-of-sale spend [1]. The array is the equally weighted arithmetic mean of year-over-year indices for its constituent brands. At listing, the members were Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Dr. Pepper and Sprite, each weighted one fifth [1]. Each constituent index equals 100 when its measured spend matches the same month of the previous year, so the array reads as an average growth gauge. According to the rules, a level of 103 means the constituents' average year-over-year growth is 3%, while 97 means an average decline of 3% [1]. The settlement value is the full-month Soda Brands Array level as published by Carbon Arc [1]. The rules say the value is recorded by Kalshi at 11:59 p.m. ET on the second calendar day after the end of the month, and that later corrections or revisions do not affect the recorded value [1]. For example, the August value is recorded on September 2 [1]. The rules also state that the market will close and expire early if the economic data is released [1]. The market data lists a separate end timestamp of December 10, 2026 at 06:30 UTC. That field should be read as a provider listing value, not as an announced event date or a confirmed settlement time. The contract is a retail-sales-related measure. Retail is described generally as businesses that sell goods and services directly to end consumers [3]. Kalshi states that it is not affiliated with the underlying companies and that trademarks belong to their respective owners [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the average year-over-year change in convenience-store point-of-sale spend across the listed soda brands for November 2026 finishes above a chosen level [1]. Because each constituent index is set to 100 at the prior year's matching month, a threshold above 100 corresponds to average growth, and a threshold below 100 corresponds to average decline [1]. Traders can compare different thresholds within the same event, but each threshold is a separate yes or no question about the same recorded value [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-10 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a level of 100 mean in this index?
Each constituent index is 100 when its measured convenience-store point-of-sale spend equals the same month of the previous year, so a level of 100 indicates no average year-over-year change [1].
When is the November 2026 value recorded?
The rules say Kalshi records the full-month value at 11:59 p.m. ET on the second calendar day after the end of the month, so the November value is recorded on December 2, 2026 [1].
Can later revisions change the outcome?
The rules state that later corrections or revisions will not affect the recorded value [1].
Which brands make up the array?
At listing, the array members were Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Dr. Pepper and Sprite, each weighted one fifth [1].
Could the market close before the end of the month?
The rules state that the market will close and expire early if the economic data is released [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Same-question pairs
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