Gas station credit card spend array index in November
K 0 contracts
1
7
K 0 contracts
1
7
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 13, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 112.5 at 50%.
Kalshi
- Above 112.550%
- Above 111.550%
- Above 110.550%
- Above 109.550%
- Above 108.550%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 0 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
7
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 13, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
Snapshot observed Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied Kalshi event asks whether the Carbon Arc Gas Station Spend Array value for November 2026 will be above a stated threshold. Each listed market uses a different threshold, from 106.5 to 112.5 [1]. The array is the equally weighted arithmetic mean of constituent year-over-year indices, and a level of 100 means spend matches the same month of the previous year [1]. At listing, the members are ExxonMobil Corporation, BP, British Petroleum, Royal Dutch Shell, and Chevron, each weighted 1/4 [1]. The excerpt states that the value is recorded "at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 4th calendar day after the end of that month," and that "Later corrections or revisions will not affect the recorded value" [1]. The platform's market data lists an end date of Dec 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC for each market, but the same excerpt says the "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. Readers should therefore rely on the recording rule in the contract text, not the listed end date, when judging when the value is fixed.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these markets at Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, and the source was retrieved at Nov 13, 2026, 1:19 AM UTC [1]. These times describe when the data was captured, not the present state of the market. Every one of the seven saved markets shows a Yes price of 0.5 and a No price of 0.5 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The saved sample includes all seven markets for this event (7 of 7, not a partial sample), but this covers only the saved provider event and does not establish that every possible outcome is listed [1]. The supplied data does not include volume or trader counts, so it cannot show how deep or active these markets were.
Because the thresholds differ, each market asks a different question. A contract with a higher threshold is not directly comparable to one with a lower threshold merely because the prices match. Identical prices across all seven thresholds should not be read as agreement on a value.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain the snapshot prices, and it contains no news or data releases beyond the contract text. The excerpt notes that the market "will close and expire early if the economic data is released," but it does not say when or whether that release will occur [1]. No current value of the array is supplied, and the excerpt does not report one. Readers comparing these markets with any other platform should check whether the wording, threshold, measurement date, and listed close time match before treating prices as comparable.
References
- Kalshi: Gas station credit card spend array index in November. Provider data observed Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 13, 2026 UTCOverview
The Kalshi event "Gas station credit card spend array index in November" is a yes or no contract tied to a monthly index published by Carbon Arc. The index tracks credit card spend at gas stations through an array of large oil and fuel companies. The contract asks whether the November 2026 array value will be above a stated threshold. Each saved market in this event uses a different threshold, from 106.5 up to 112.5 [1]. The array is the equally weighted arithmetic mean of its constituent year-over-year indices. Each constituent index equals 100 when its measured credit card spend matches the same month of the previous year. An array level of 103 therefore means the constituents' average year-over-year growth is 3 percent, and 97 means an average decline of 3 percent [1]. Because the array is an average of growth indices rather than a dollar total, a reading above 100 signals year-over-year growth in spending across the group, while a reading below 100 signals a decline. The contract resolves on the full-month value of the array. Kalshi records that value at 11:59 p.m. ET on the fourth calendar day after the end of the month, so the November 2026 value is recorded on December 4, 2026. The provider's rules state that later corrections or revisions do not change the recorded value [1]. The saved market data lists an end date of December 12, 2026 at 15:00 UTC for these contracts. That field is a provider data point and is separate from the recording time described in the rules [1]. The event also states that it will close and expire early if the relevant economic data is released [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether average year-over-year credit card spend at a fixed group of gas station operators, as captured by Carbon Arc's published Gas Station Spend Array, is above a chosen threshold for November 2026 [1]. Traders following these contracts are essentially forecasting the direction and size of that monthly average growth figure relative to the threshold. The contract rules also state that Kalshi is not affiliated with the underlying companies and that trademarks belong to their respective owners [1]. The saved snapshot shows each threshold market priced at 0.5 for Yes and 0.5 for No, observed at 15:00 UTC on November 12, 2026 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they do not show how the market would respond to new information.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-12 at 15:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does an array value of 103 mean?
The array is the equally weighted average of the constituents' year-over-year indices, where 100 means flat spending compared with the same month a year earlier. A value of 103 means the constituents' average year-over-year growth is 3 percent [1].
Which month and time determine the outcome?
The contract resolves on the full-month array value for November 2026, recorded by Kalshi at 11:59 p.m. ET on the fourth calendar day after the month ends, which is December 4, 2026 [1].
Do later revisions to the index change the result?
The rules state that later corrections or revisions will not affect the recorded value [1].
Is the contract affiliated with the companies in the index?
No. Kalshi states that it is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or otherwise officially connected with the underlying companies [1].
Does the event close early?
The rules state that the market will close and expire early if the economic data is released [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Fast food credit card spend array index in November 2026
K 0 contracts
Big box credit card spend array index in November 2026
K 0 contracts
Teen apparel credit card spend array index in November
K 0 contracts
Starbucks Monthly Credit Card Spend in November 2026
K 2.77 contracts
Chipotle Monthly Credit Card Spend in November 2026
K 2.43 contracts
Wendy's Monthly Credit Card Spend in November 2026
K 2.38 contractsMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
