Big box credit card spend array index in November 2026

Snapshot observed Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The contract asks whether the Carbon Arc Big Box Array index for November 2026 will be above a stated threshold. The array is "the equally weighted arithmetic mean of its constituent year-over-year indices," and its members at listing were Walmart Inc., Target, Best Buy Co, and Costco Wholesale Corporation, each weighted 1/4 [1]. The source explains that "each constituent index is 100 when its measured credit card spend equals the same month of the previous year," so a level of 103 means average year-over-year growth of 3% [1].

Resolution uses the full-month value "as recorded by Kalshi at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 4th calendar day after the end of that month" [1]. Applying the source's own example, the November value would be recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on December 4, 2026. This is a reading of the contract rule, not an announced event. The source also says the market "will close and expire early if the economic data is released" [1].

Reading the snapshot

The saved snapshot covers 11 Kalshi markets under one event, with thresholds from 88 to 108. Every market in the sample is included, and the sample is not marked partial. Each market shows a Yes price and a No price of 0.5 at observation time [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities.

The provider observed these prices at Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. The evidence was retrieved at Nov 12, 2026, 8:53 AM UTC. Neither timestamp shows the prices as current at the time you read this.

The thresholds are distinct contracts with different outcomes, so their identical prices should not be combined or averaged. Equal prices across thresholds in this snapshot do not show that the index is expected to sit at any particular level.

What remains uncertain

The market records give an end date of Dec 12, 2026, 6:30 AM UTC, but the provider's listed end time is recorded as "not supplied" [1]. The rule-based recording time above is a different value, so readers should not treat either as a confirmed close. The evidence also does not establish the index value, any revisions, or the outcome.

Because only Kalshi appears in this evidence, no cross-platform comparison is possible. Volume and trader counts are not included, so this snapshot says nothing about liquidity or participation.

References

1. Kalshi: Big box credit card spend array index in November 2026. Provider data observed Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC.