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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

OK-01 Republican Primary Winner

Name: OK-01 Republican Primary Winner
End: 2026-06-16T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$20.34K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

OK-01 Republican Primary Winner

Vol

$20.34K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $20.34K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $20.34K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

12 markets tracked

Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01?	Poly	37%
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01?	Poly	30%
Will Kim David be the Republican nominee for OK-01?	Poly	19%
Will Dan Rooney be the Republican nominee for OK-01?	Poly	16%
Will Jackson Stallings be the Republican nominee for OK-01?	Poly	3%
Will Todd Woods be the Republican nominee for OK-01?	Poly	2%
Will Jed Cochran be the Republican nominee for OK-01?	Poly	1%
Will Nancy Dyson be the Republican nominee for OK-01?	Poly	1%
Will Nathan Butterfield be the Republican nominee for OK-01?	Poly	1%
Will Courtney Gill be the Republican nominee for OK-01?	Poly	0%
Will Paul Royse be the Republican nominee for OK-01?	Poly	0%
Will Kelly B. Walsh be the Republican nominee for OK-01?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

37%

Top Probability

$20.34K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. An

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** OK-01 Republican Primary Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 16, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

An

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announc"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $20.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $32.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.63)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Jed Cochran be the Republican nominee for OK-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 16, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Nancy Dyson be the Republican nominee for OK-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 16, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 16, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Paul Royse be the Republican nominee for OK-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 16, 2026): Vol $883
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 16, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 37.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Kelly B. Walsh be the Republican nominee for OK-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 16, 2026): Vol $884
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Nathan Butterfield be the Republican nominee for OK-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 16, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Kim David be the Republican nominee for OK-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 16, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Courtney Gill be the Republican nominee for OK-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 16, 2026): Vol $934
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Dan Rooney be the Republican nominee for OK-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 16, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.4% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Jackson Stallings be the Republican nominee for OK-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 16, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Todd Woods be the Republican nominee for OK-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 16, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics