South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Winner 2028
PM $2.2K
1
20
South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Winner 2028
PM $2.2K
1
20
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is J.D. Vance at 39.5%.
Polymarket
- J.D. Vance39.5%
- Tucker Carlson28%
- Donald Trump27%
- Donald Trump Jr.27%
- Thomas Massie27%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $2.2K
Reported volume · provider units
20
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
South Carolina is expected to hold a Republican presidential primary or caucus in 2028. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most votes in the South Carolina Republican primary, caucus, or other official voting process by which the South Carolina public directs the voting of delegates for the selection of the 2028 Republican presidential nominee. If the relevant delegate selection process is a caucus or other multi-round process, the relevant vote count will be the final round vote count that determines the apportionment of statewide delegates. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If no 2028 South Carolina primary, caucus, or comparable process takes place, or if the results are not definitively known by the earliest of November 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, or the first day of the 2028 Republican convention, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the complete results from the South Carolina Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-09T09:00:06.079Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied event is a Polymarket group titled "South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Winner 2028." Each market asks whether a named candidate will win the South Carolina Republican primary, caucus, or other official process that directs delegate selection for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee [1]. The source says the winner is the candidate with the most valid votes in the specified election, with ties broken alphabetically by last name [1].
The contract also says the market resolves to "Other" if no 2028 South Carolina process takes place, or if results are not definitively known by the earliest of November 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, or the first day of the 2028 Republican convention [1]. The listed end time is 2028-11-08T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That is a closing time in the contract record, not an announced date for any vote. The provider lists the event as active [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-11-09T09:00:06Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-11-09T11:57:46Z. These are snapshot values, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Within the included sample, Yes prices range from 0.385 for J.D. Vance to 0.265 for Donald Trump [1]. Vance is the highest Yes price in the saved sample, followed by Donald Trump Jr. and Tom Cotton at 0.295 each [1]. Several names sit between 0.275 and 0.290 [1]. Each Yes and No pair in the sample sums to 1.00 [1].
The sample is partial. The provider event has 20 markets, and 12 are included [1]. The selection took the 12 highest finite Yes prices, then volume as a tiebreaker [1]. Because of this, the omitted eight markets should not be read as lower-priced. The sample also should not be treated as the full candidate field. Price differences between markets here reflect quoted contracts, not confirmed differences in likelihood.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, how many traders hold each view, or how much could be bought or sold at these levels. Volume is not liquidity or a trader count.
Platform wording also matters. This event uses specific resolution language, including the "Other" fallback and the requirement for official results or an "overwhelming consensus of credible reporting" [1]. No other platform's contract is supplied, so these prices should not be compared with other sites' contracts or treated as an arbitrage signal.
References
- Polymarket: South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Winner 2028. Provider data observed 2026-11-09T09:00:06.079Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 9, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract asks which candidate will win the South Carolina Republican presidential primary for the 2028 cycle. The provider's rules say South Carolina is expected to hold a Republican presidential primary or caucus in 2028 [1]. The market resolves to the candidate who wins the most votes in the South Carolina Republican primary, caucus, or other official voting process used to direct the state's delegates to the 2028 Republican presidential nominee [1]. If the process is a caucus or another multi-round process, the final round vote count that determines statewide delegate apportionment is the relevant count [1]. The rules rank candidates by valid votes received. If two or more candidates tie, the tie is broken by alphabetical order of last names, and the market resolves to the candidate with the highest finishing position after that ranking [1]. The resolution source is the first official announcement of complete results from the South Carolina Republican Party, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice [1]. The contract also has a fallback. If no 2028 South Carolina primary, caucus, or comparable process takes place, or if results are not definitively known by the earlier of November 7, 2028 at 11:59 PM ET or the first day of the 2028 Republican convention, the market resolves to Other [1]. The listed end time of 2028-11-08T04:59:00.000Z appears in the contract data as a listed end time and is not an announced election date [1]. The broader Republican primary process is described as planned. Wikipedia's article on the 2028 Republican presidential primaries says the primaries and caucuses are going to be organized by the Republican Party to select delegates to the 2028 Republican National Convention, across all 50 states, Washington, D.C., and five U.S. territories, and that no primary dates have been determined [2]. This article is a general reference page and does not confirm current events. At the time of the saved snapshot, the provider listed the event as active [1]. The included markets show Yes prices for candidates such as J.D. Vance at 0.385 and Donald Trump at 0.265 [1]. These figures are price snapshots from the saved provider data, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single outcome: which named candidate finishes first in the South Carolina Republican presidential nominating process for 2028, as defined by the provider's rules [1]. Because the rules specify a vote-count ranking, a tie-breaking method, and a resolution source, the price reflects market participants' trading activity under those specific terms rather than a fixed forecast [1]. The contract's wording also means that a cancelled or undetermined process resolves to Other rather than to any named candidate [1]. Traders reading the prices should check the scope of the included sample, since the saved event lists 12 of 20 markets [1]. Volume and the number of traders are not supplied here, so the snapshot does not show how deep the market is.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-09 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines the winner of this contract?
The winner is the candidate who receives the most valid votes in the South Carolina Republican primary, caucus, or other official process that directs delegate selection for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee [1]. If the process is multi-round, the final round count that determines statewide delegate apportionment is used [1].
What happens if there is no South Carolina primary or caucus in 2028?
The market resolves to Other if no 2028 South Carolina primary, caucus, or comparable process takes place, or if results are not definitively known by the earliest of November 7, 2028 at 11:59 PM ET or the first day of the 2028 Republican convention [1].
How are ties handled?
Candidates are ranked by valid votes received. Ties are broken by alphabetical order of last names, and the market resolves to the candidate with the highest finishing position after this ranking [1].
What source is used to resolve the market?
The resolution source is the first official announcement of complete results from the South Carolina Republican Party. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice [1].
Do the listed prices show the probability of each candidate winning?
The supplied prices are snapshots from the provider data at the time of observation. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the sample includes only 12 of 20 markets in this event [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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