Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?
PM $436.9K
1
22
Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?
PM $436.9K
1
22
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Florida at 98.6%.
Polymarket
- Florida98.6%
- California97.7%
- Texas97.2%
- North Carolina96.4%
- Ohio95.6%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $436.9K
Reported volume · provider units
22
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, after the 2024 United States congressional elections, the listed state must have adopted a new congressional district map that is: - Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; - Not enjoined, vacated or otherwise fully struck down prior to the 2026 United States Midterm elections; and - In effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will qualify if they are in effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are completely redrawn by a court, special master, or legislature before implementation will not qualify, unless the redrawn map is itself a new map used in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If the 2026 United States midterm elections occur and no new qualifying map is in use, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the listed state and a consensus of credible reporting.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
Each market in this event asks whether one listed state will use a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. The rules say a market resolves "Yes" if the state uses such a map, and "No" otherwise [1]. To qualify, the map must be formally adopted and enacted, not enjoined, vacated, or otherwise fully struck down before the midterms, and in effect for the 2026 elections [1]. Maps temporarily stayed pending appeal qualify if later upheld, while maps completely redrawn before implementation do not [1].
Resolution sources are "official information from the listed state and a consensus of credible reporting" [1]. The listed end times are mostly 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z, but North Carolina and Texas are listed at 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z [1]. These are listed close times, not confirmed resolution dates, and the rules set no separate announced event date.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-16T02:17:50.964Z [1]. They are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Among the 12 included markets, the highest Yes prices were Florida at 0.9855, California at 0.9795, North Carolina at 0.973, Ohio at 0.9715, and Texas at 0.961 [1]. Louisiana (0.95) and Utah (0.93) followed. Alabama was lower at 0.615. Washington (0.053), Indiana (0.045), Wisconsin (0.043), and Virginia (0.0425) had the lowest Yes prices in the sample [1].
The included set is ordered by Yes price, so it is not the full field. The event lists 22 markets in total, and only 12 are included [1]. This sample cannot show how the omitted ten were priced, so readers should not assume their prices or outcomes.
Differences in wording and listed end times matter when comparing markets. Because all markets come from one provider event, rankings here are internal to that event. Price gaps should not be read as arbitrage opportunities without checking each contract's rules and timing.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, and it does not report trader counts, liquidity, or recent news. Volume is not included in this record, so no inference about depth is possible. The rules also turn on legal status, including stays, appeals, and court actions, and the supplied material does not describe the current status of any state's map. Readers should consult the official state sources and the contract text before relying on these prices.
References
- Polymarket: Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks whether a listed US state will use a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Each state has its own market in the Polymarket event titled "Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?" [1]. A market resolves to "Yes" if the listed state uses a new congressional district map for those elections, and to "No" otherwise [1]. To qualify, a map must meet three conditions. It must be formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority. It must not be enjoined, vacated, or otherwise fully struck down before the 2026 midterms. It must also be in effect for use in those elections [1]. The rules also say that a map temporarily stayed pending appeal will still qualify if it is later upheld and is in effect for the 2026 midterms [1]. The rules exclude maps that are completely redrawn by a court, special master, or legislature before implementation, unless the redrawn map is itself a new map used in the 2026 midterms [1]. If the midterms occur and no new qualifying map is in use, the market resolves to "No" [1]. The primary resolution sources are official information from the listed state and a consensus of credible reporting [1]. The event lists an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z for most of its markets, while a few state markets list 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z [1]. These are listed contract end times. They are not an announced election date or a confirmation of when any state will resolve its market. The price snapshot in this article was observed at 2026-10-16T00:00:06Z. It reflects the Yes and No prices on the provider at that moment. It is not a current quote, an executable price, or a verified probability that a state will use a new map.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow, rule-based question: whether a state's new congressional map is formally enacted, not blocked in a way that removes it, and in effect for the 2026 midterms [1]. Because the rules turn on legal status and use in the election rather than on general news about redistricting, the wording of each condition determines what counts. A map that is challenged but still stayed pending appeal can qualify if it is later upheld and used, while a map fully struck down or replaced by a court before implementation does not, unless the replacement is itself the map in use [1]. In the snapshot, the Yes prices for the included state markets range from about 0.04 to about 0.99 [1]. Those prices are the provider's observed trading values at that time. They are not verified probabilities of any outcome. Volume, where shown, reflects trading activity and does not measure liquidity or the number of traders. The sample is partial. The event has 22 markets, and 12 are included in this snapshot [1]. The included markets are selected by Yes price and then volume, so this article does not describe the omitted markets or the full field. Each market is a separate contract about a different state, so the prices should not be compared as a ranking of one contest or treated as an arbitrage opportunity because they differ.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a market need to resolve Yes?
The listed state must use a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. That map must be formally adopted and enacted into law, not enjoined, vacated, or fully struck down before the midterms, and in effect for use in those elections [1].
Does a map that is stayed pending appeal count?
It can. The rules say a map temporarily stayed pending appeal qualifies if it is later upheld and is in effect for use in the 2026 midterm elections [1].
What happens if a map is redrawn before it is used?
A map completely redrawn by a court, special master, or legislature before implementation does not qualify, unless the redrawn map is itself a new map used in the 2026 midterms [1].
What happens if no new qualifying map is in use?
If the 2026 midterm elections occur and no new qualifying map is in use, the market resolves to "No" [1].
What sources decide resolution?
The primary resolution sources are official information from the listed state and a consensus of credible reporting [1].
Are the prices shown a forecast of the outcome?
No. The prices are snapshots of provider trading values at a specific observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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