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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?

Name: Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?
End: 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$514.98

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Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?

Vol

$514.98

Events

Markets

Polymarket

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Polymarket

markets · $514.98

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $514.98

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

22 markets tracked

Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(22)

Market	Platform	Price
Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Poly	86%
Will North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Poly	85%
Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Poly	84%
Will Ohio use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Poly	80%
Will Virginia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Poly	76%
Will Florida use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Poly	74%
Will Louisiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Poly	74%
Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Poly	59%
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Poly	50%
Will Kansas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Poly	49%
Will Washington use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Poly	49%
Will Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Poly	42%
Will New Jersey use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Poly	42%
Will Illinois use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Poly	42%
Will Nebraska use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Poly	42%
Will Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Poly	42%
Will Georgia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Poly	42%
Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Poly	42%
Will Wisconsin use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Poly	41%
Will Maryland use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Poly	39%
Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Poly	31%
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Poly	13%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

86%

Top Probability

$514.98

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, after the 2024 United States congressional elections, the listed state must have adopted a new congressional district map that is: - Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; - Not enjoined, vacated or otherwise fully struck down prior to the 202

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (116 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

To qualify, after the 2024 United States congressional elections, the listed state must have adopted a new congressional district map that is:
- Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority;
- Not enjoined, vacated or otherwise fully struck down prior to the 202

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

To qualify, after the 2024 United States congressional elections, the listed state must have adopted a new congre"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $515
* **Total Liquidity:** $14.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.04)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $73
  DATA: [Yes: 84.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Ohio use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $38
  DATA: [Yes: 79.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $168
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $43
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Kansas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Washington use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Illinois use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $103
  DATA: [Yes: 85.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Florida use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 74.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will New Jersey use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Nebraska use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $56
  DATA: [Yes: 86.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Louisiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 73.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Virginia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $32
  DATA: [Yes: 76.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Maryland use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 59.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Georgia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Wisconsin use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics