GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Piura Mayoral Election Winner

Name: Piura Mayoral Election Winner
End: 2026-10-04T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$24.85K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Piura Mayoral Election Winner

Vol

$24.85K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $24.85K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $24.85K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Will Miguel Gerardo Cueva Celi win the next Piura mayoral elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Miguel Gerardo Cueva Celi win the next Piura mayoral elections?	Poly	31%
Will Jorge Hilton Flores Bazán win the next Piura mayoral elections?	Poly	27%
Will Paul Anthony Lizama Quinde win the next Piura mayoral elections?	Poly	17%
Will Walther Guerrero Silva win the next Piura mayoral elections?	Poly	17%
Will José Luis Morey Requejo win the next Piura mayoral elections?	Poly	16%
Will Mercedes Paola Maza Valencia win the next Piura mayoral elections?	Poly	6%
Will Kelly Ann Stefany Morillas Bogado win the next Piura mayoral elections?	Poly	5%
Will John Alexander Do Santos Ocmin win the next Piura mayoral elections?	Poly	5%
Will Carlos Eduardo Cruz Michilot win the next Piura mayoral elections?	Poly	5%
Will Segundo Buenaventura Chávez Albirena win the next Piura mayoral elections?	Poly	5%
Will Martín Gerardo Olivares Chanduví win the next Piura mayoral elections?	Poly	3%
Will Javier Fernando Miguel Atkins Lerggios win the next Piura mayoral elections?	Poly	3%
Will Guillermo Chávez Timoteo win the next Piura mayoral elections?	Poly	2%
Will Ricardo Eliseo Paulini Palacios win the next Piura mayoral elections?	Poly	2%
Will Alberto Alonso Ordinola Niño win the next Piura mayoral elections?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

31%

Top Probability

$24.85K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The 2026 Piura, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Provincial Municipality of Piura as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If this election is annulled or the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resoluti

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Piura Mayoral Election Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 4, 2026 (30 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The 2026 Piura, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Provincial Municipality of Piura as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If this election is annulled or the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resoluti

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2026 Piura, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Provincial Municipality of Piura as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed befor"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $24.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $73.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.34)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will John Alexander Do Santos Ocmin win the next Piura mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $308
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Segundo Buenaventura Chávez Albirena win the next Piura mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $187
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Jorge Hilton Flores Bazán win the next Piura mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $8.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.3% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Martín Gerardo Olivares Chanduví win the next Piura mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $198
  DATA: [Yes: 3.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Kelly Ann Stefany Morillas Bogado win the next Piura mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $198
  DATA: [Yes: 5.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Carlos Eduardo Cruz Michilot win the next Piura mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $184
  DATA: [Yes: 4.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Paul Anthony Lizama Quinde win the next Piura mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $231
  DATA: [Yes: 16.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Miguel Gerardo Cueva Celi win the next Piura mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $12.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Guillermo Chávez Timoteo win the next Piura mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $185
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.8% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will José Luis Morey Requejo win the next Piura mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $220
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Javier Fernando Miguel Atkins Lerggios win the next Piura mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $346
  DATA: [Yes: 3.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Walther Guerrero Silva win the next Piura mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $220
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Alberto Alonso Ordinola Niño win the next Piura mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Ricardo Eliseo Paulini Palacios win the next Piura mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $174
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Mercedes Paola Maza Valencia win the next Piura mayoral elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $184
  DATA: [Yes: 6.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics