Snapshot observed 2026-10-21T06:00:05.915Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event asks when the Rhine River returns to normal levels. The source states that the market "will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline" [1]. The source also says that "A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count" [1]. The 77 centimeter threshold is described as the equivalent water level for Kaub and the reference that "defines 'normal levels' for this market" [1].

The two saved markets use different wording and close times. The first, "Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?", lists an end date of October 31, 2026 at 23:59 UTC. The second, "Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?", lists an end date of November 1, 2026 at 23:59 UTC [1]. These are separate contracts with different windows, so their prices should not be combined or treated as one measurement.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observation time is 2026-10-21T06:00:05.915Z, and the source was retrieved at 06:04:41.877Z on the same day. Both values describe this snapshot only, not a live price.

For the October contract, the saved prices are Yes at 0.61 and No at 0.39. For the contract on failure to return before November 1, the saved prices are Yes at 0.375 and No at 0.625 [1]. Each contract's own Yes and No prices are the two outcomes for that contract. Comparing the two contracts is not an arbitrage check, because their windows and wording differ.

The sample covers all saved markets for this one event: two markets, with no partial sample flag [1]. This does not show that the provider lists every possible outcome for the real-world question.

What remains uncertain

These prices are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence does not include trading volume, liquidity, or the number of traders, so it cannot show how firmly these prices are held. The evidence also does not explain why prices are where they are, and this analysis does not offer a cause.

The resolution text includes a fallback rule: if no qualifying reading appears on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) by November 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM Berlin time, the market resolves to the "No return before November 1, 2026" outcome [1]. Readers should check that rule against the listed end times, which are given in UTC, while the resolution is defined in Berlin time.

References

1. Polymarket: When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?. Provider data observed 2026-10-21T06:00:05.915Z.