GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETCrypto

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Name: Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$57.58K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Vol

$57.58K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $57.58K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $57.58K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Poly	50%
Will Andy Kim vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Poly	46%
Will Raphael Warnock vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Poly	45%
Will Ruben Gallego vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Poly	44%
Will Alex Padilla vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Poly	35%
Will Kirsten Gillibrand vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Poly	35%
Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Poly	35%
Will Catherine Cortez Masto vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Poly	28%
Will Mike Lee vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Poly	27%
Will Jacky Rosen vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Poly	27%
Will Lisa Blunt Rochester vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Poly	22%
Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Poly	21%
Will Josh Hawley vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Poly	19%
Will Jerry Moran vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Poly	16%
Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Poly	11%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

50%

Top Probability

$57.58K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-2026072722393

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
**Category:** Crypto | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (118 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-2026072722393

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is d"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $57.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $18.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.19)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Mike Lee vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $8.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Catherine Cortez Masto vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Jerry Moran vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $6.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Kirsten Gillibrand vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $424
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Lisa Blunt Rochester vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Ruben Gallego vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $7.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Raphael Warnock vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Josh Hawley vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Andy Kim vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $439
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $178
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $9.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Jacky Rosen vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $6.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Alex Padilla vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETCrypto